Weekly Update (May 09): Fix Your Curled Foils

by mtggoldfish // May 10, 2021

Modern Horizons 2 Previews

Both Modern Horizons 2 and the next Dungeons & Dragons themed Standard set, Adventures in the Forgotten Realms, were both previewed this week. On the MH2 front, we saw the art for the enemy fetchlands including extended art and old border versions, a new cards based on powerful old designs in Diamond Lion and Brainstone, and then a strange Enchantment Saga Land, aptly called Urza's Saga. Be sure to check all of the latest previews at mtgpreviews.com.

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Finance Update w/ Saffron Olive

By far the biggest financial news of the week was the early start to Modern Horizons 2 spoilers. We've known for nearly a year that the enemy fetchlands would be reprinted in the set, but what we didn't know is that along with a normal printing they would also come in extended borders and - most importantly - old borders. Right now the enemy fetchlands are between $46 (Arid Mesa) and $77 (Misty Rainforest), and based on previous reprintings, it's likely we'll see the best of the bunch drop down to around $40 while the less expensive fetchlands will likely dip below $30. While this isn't cheap in an absolute sense, it's still a massive discount compared to current prices. If you've been looking to pick up fetchlands for Modern, Legacy, or Commander, this will be your best opportunity of the year, and maybe for a couple of years.

As far as the old border fetchlands, they will almost certainly be extremely expensive. We know there's a reprint slot in Modern Horizons 2, which sounds a lot like the old border slot from Time Spiral Remastered, although it hasn't been confirmed if all of the cards in the slot feature the old border or not. Currently old border Thoughtseize - perhaps the best of the Time Spiral Remastered old border reprints - is selling for almost double the value of its cheapest printing. If old border fetches hold to the pattern, a safe expectation would be that most will be somewhere between $60 and $100 while the set is being opened, although the sky is the limit long term. As for foils, assuming the distribution is similar to Time Spiral Remastered, prices will be absurd. A foil old border Thoughtseize sells for roughly 13 times the non-foil old border version. If we assume non-foil old border fetchlands are going to be $60 to $100, this would put the price of the foil versions at somewhere around $800 for the less desirable fetchlands and well over $1000 (maybe even pushing $1500) for high-end fetchlands like Misty Rainforest.

The bad news is that boxes of Modern Horizons 2 are going to be incredibly expensive. Current presales have normal draft booster boxes at around $250 while collector boosters are at least $350 and some places are selling them for $400 or more. Based on the price that stores are paying from distributors, this isn't unreasonable (rumors are that stores are paying $250 or more for a single Collector Booster box). My guess is that once we see more of the set and can calculate the expected value, it will be off the charts high. The problem is that even with a good expected value, if you're just cracking a pack or even a box, there's a ton of variance, making it not just a gamble for the average player, but a very expensive gamble. If you can sink thousands of dollars into Modern Horizons 2 to even out the variance, my guess is that it will be worth it, but the average player is likely better off spending their money on newly cheap singles (like fetchlands) rather than cracking boxes and playing the foil fetchland lottery.

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