Vintage 101: An Early Look at the Vintage 2025 Metagame
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at the Vintage Metagame since the restrictions of Saga/Bauble now that we've had a good bit of time to really digest it. We'll probably do another set of these next month and in March just to keep an eye on things up to the March 31st Banned and Restricted Announcement. In addition, we've only got a few Challenges to discuss due to some lag issues from Magic Online this past weekend that canceled some events.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Checking In On Vintage 2025
It has been a hot minute since we checked in on Vintage, and we've got a lot of months in since the restriction of Urza's Saga and Vexing Bauble. Not much has really changed since then because there's not much in this timeframe that has occurred outside of Eternal Weekend events. These events all took place in this metagame, but things have been continuing along as Vintage does. I pulled the most recent Metagame Dashboard as of 1/13/2025 from the Vintage Streamer's Discord data info that is maintained by Justin Gennari's group. You can find that copy here. This is primarily to preserve this moment in time for the future in case things change.
So, let's look at some of the graphical data.
There's a lot to unpack here, so let's take a look at what is happening with Vintage right now.
Initiative is firmly and squarely at the top of the most represented deck in the format at this juncture. Almost 15% of the format is just Initiative decks, and it definitely seems that the format at large is ready and gunning for this deck, but it's win rate is pretty close to 50% at around 50.45%. This is a deck that you can definitely consider that you will see in Challenge events. It's often showed up in Challenge events we cover on here as the most played deck in any given event, and it seems like it is very good.
One thing I will note about this however is that I do think this is masking a bit of the bigger issue in general and that's the fact that Lurrus is very good. While the next decks down that are highly played don't get to Esper Lurrus until the Fourth deck in line, I do think Lurrus being so prevalent is a good reason for Initiative to be where it is. Initiative as a deck is generally always playing a bunch of cards like Swords to Plowshares, March of Otherworldly Light, and Solitude, all cards that answer Lurrus as a card, but also most recently the deck's adoption of cards like Stillmoon Cavalier has proven that it is adapting to Lurrus as a deck primarily, because I don't think much adaptation for Initiative is required versus either Dredge or Jewel Shops, our Number Two and Number Three decks.
Dredge is the second most popular deck since the Restrictions, but in all reality Dredge's metagame share is much wilder than it's actual win rate. Dredge is a deck that when it does its thing, it's great. It does powerful stuff and it has a lot of Game 1s that it absolutely slaughters most decks. But more often than not, every deck in the format has a way to gun for Dredge in multiple different avenues. Many of these ways also work against other decks, for example Containment Priest works great against Oath as well. Dredge is one of those decks that's likely always going to exist in Vintage unless they really go deep on a bigger restriction (like for example if they ever restricted Stinkweed Imp) but it seems like it's incredibly easy to deal with from a multiple deck perspective. The only way I think they could ever conceivably kill Dredge is to restrict Bazaar, and I don't really see that happening.
I think it's reasonable to have a deck like Dredge in the format that somehow despite this medium win rate, people do like to play it because its fast, does strong things, and can pull games out of nowhere if people aren't prepared for it.
The Jewel Shops deck is sitting around third in this list at roughly 11.2% of the metagame. It does have around a 52.18% win rate, and I do think Jewel is one of those very "Vintage" decks. It does very Vintage things and it's extremely powerful. Furthermore, Jewel has been in a space where it is finding ways to get around its biggest weakness in Null Rod. Post board this has been answers like Argentum Masticore, but we've also seen things like Patchwork Automaton or Kappa Cannoneer.
I am reasonable okay with Jewel at this point. It's become the PO of the format, and I'm not sure what Wizards could even do to this deck outside of maybe restricting Jewel itself. There's lots of ways to attack Jewel though, but there is a balance in the format right now with these top decks, so taking away something else could make Jewel even better long term.
Now we come to the big bit. This data is breaking these decks up into different archetypes (Esper and Dimir Lurrus) but if you were to combine the raw metagame numbers of these two, Lurrus in general would be the top deck of the format in terms of representation, and we see this in the macro archetypes. Just Esper and Dimir Lurrus is 683 decks. This is so much Lurrus, and this goes back to what I was saying about Initiative. Initiative is played pretty heavily, but Lurrus in general is so much of the format (the overall macro archetype being close to 27% of the metagame) that it's one of those omnipresent things that you have to think about constantly for current Vintage. Each of the Lurrus Control variants both sit around the 52% - 54% mark of win rate, and they're both very good decks at any given time on a weekend if you know what you're doing with them.
And honestly? If I'm being really real here... I hate it. I don't like Companions all that much anyways, but I absolutely loathe how much of this format has become devoted to Lurrus. It is kind of crazy that this is where the Tempo/Control decks of the format are at now, and I very much dislike the same-y gameplay of all the Lurrus decks. In all honesty they feel even more same-y than they did with unrestricted Saga, because at least Saga gave these decks other things to do that wasn't just Psychic Frog and Lurrus. While I think it's okay to have a fair deck at the top of the format in general, I don't think coming at the cost of homogenizing decks is it.
Unfortunately, the only way that this deck can be addressed is to ban Lurrus. I don't think there's any world where restricting anything makes Lurrus drop in overall metagame share.
The fifth most played archetype in the current format is Oath, but I will note one big thing here. Dimir Lurrus is sitting around 313 decks here in this data set. Oath is next, at a little over 100 copies less than Dimir Lurrus. Oath at 212 copies down from 313 from the next deck is a huge drop in players playing this deck. Not only that, Oath is sitting roughly around a 49.33% win rate. Frankly, I also don't really see this deck too much in Challenges converting up to Top 16s/Top 8s either as of late, so it's a very rough spot for Oath right now it feels like.
I will admit, I enjoy Oath as a deck because it feels very Vintage and I love decks that feel very Vintage, but I'm not so sure it's a good place for Oath right about now.
Overall I have to admit that this is some of the least fun I've had with Vintage in some time, and I actually hate saying that. I love Vintage. I think it's always generally a fun format to play some really broken Magic cards and you can enjoy some really unique games with this format, but this format feels very stale, and it feels like it has hadless innovation than I've seen in the past. I also just absolutely loathe Lurrus. And with only Aetherdrift coming before the March 31st BnR, I don't see that set actually doing much to shift any of the needles that are currently in place in Vintage.
As I noted before I'll keep doing these metagame check-ins until March just to see what things continue to evolve towards, but I don't expect much movement, especially with Lurrus.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/9/2025
The first Challenge event of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 51 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most popular deck of the event and while it had one Top 8 appearance, its overall win rate was not as good. Esper Lurrus and Lurrus DRS looked really strong, as did BUG.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus DRS | 1st | KingHairy |
| BUG | 2nd | lordoflifegain |
| Esper Lurrus | 3rd | wiky |
| Esper Lurrus | 4th | Viatt |
| Esper Lurrus | 5th | Graciasportanto |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | JakeTMS |
| BUG | 7th | BERNASTORRES |
| Initiative | 8th | Bezerra_da_Silva |
This is a lot of Esper Lurrus here. Wow. I will note that at the end of the event it was Lurrus DRS that won.
With the Initiative numbers being what they are, having cards that answer Initiative directly like Knight of Infamy, Tourach, Dread Cantor, and even Virtue's Ruin showcases just how much Initiative sees play right now and the steps players are taking to beat up on it. We even have two more Virtue's Ruin in the sideboard. Also, Fractured Sanity is kind of a nutty card because you can cycle it versus Doomsday and they can't easily respond to it outside of something like Consign to Memory.
In Second Place we had BUG.
Pretty straightforward current BUG list, to be honest. There isn't much here that's pushing any boundaries, but there doesn't have to be. Sometimes just being clean and straightforward is the best way.
Also, as we noted we had a bunch of Esper Lurrus. Let's look at the highest placing list.
This is super clean as well. The 2 Lorien manabase setup is quite nice, since you know more than likely you're cycling one of them, but being able to cast the other late game is also nice.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/10/2025
The second Challenge event of the week was the Friday event. This event had 38 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Esper Lurrus was very popular here, and it just sat right above 50% win rate. Initiative seemed to be just okay, but it did have a Top 8 finish with a twist. Dredge did very well, as did Doomsday.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dredge | 1st | RedandSnap1 |
| Sphere Shops | 2nd | Mogged |
| Dredge | 3rd | wolf2222 |
| Initiative | 4th | albertoSD |
| Esper Lurrus | 5th | ecobaronen |
| Doomsday | 6th | CrazyDiamond513 |
| Dredge | 7th | Munchlax446 |
| BUG | 8th | Dr. Jon Osterman |
Quite a bit of Dredge, and it did win the event in the end.
Very solid looking Dredge list here. It is interesting that the deck is not playing more Mindbreak Trap, but it looks strong for sure.
In Second Place we had Sphere Shops.
Sort of a bridge of big Aggro + prison based Shops here. Most of the threats here are big threats that don't care about Null Rod which is great for these kinds of decks.
Also in this Top 8 we had Initiative... with a twist.
Boros Initiative! Pretty cool way to approach this deck, especially getting access to 12 Initiative creatures as well as Magus of the Moon and Blood Moon.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/12/2025
The final Challenge event of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 34 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Jewel Shops was the most popular deck of the event, and despite the fact that it had some strong results it had a less than 50% win rate, largely due in part that it had a lot of representation. Doomsday looked very good, as did Lurrus PO.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Jewel Shops | 1st | death_grips |
| Eldrazi | 2nd | etoustar |
| Jewel Shops | 3rd | _Chamytinho_ |
| Sphere Shops | 4th | dingzhen |
| Doomsday | 5th | CrazyDiamond513 |
| Doomsday | 6th | _INF_ |
| Fleshraker Shops | 7th | crK |
| Lurrus PO | 8th | unluckymonkey |
Fair amount of Shops and Doomsday here. At the end of the event it was Jewel Shops that won.
This is a strong Jewel list. I like the split of both Kappa Cannoneer and Argentum Masticore in the sideboard as jukes against your Null Rod decks.
In Second Place we had Eldrazi.
Eldritch Immunity is kind of a sweet card, not going to lie. Being able to give your whole team pro-white for instance versus Initiative seems really strong, and the Overload cost seems very low when you consider Eye of Ugin and stuff like Sowing Mycospawn. This is a sweet list.
Also in this Top 8 we had Fleshraker Shops.
I love how sick this deck is. It's a really goofy way to win the game. Even without Fleshraker you can still loop Tops with Patchwork Automaton for some big boosts every turn. It's really cool.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has some spice for us.
- FiretruckModo has a Jewel Shops league! Check it out here.
- Revenantkioku has a video on Doomsday with Stillmoon Cavalier. Check it out here.
- Kindamtg has a video on Mono Black Chains. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Singleton PO strikes again!
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
