This Week in Legacy: Predictionary!
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of This Week in Legacy! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're delving into what could happen in Legacy with the B&R on August 26th. In addition to that we've got some Challenges from last week to look at and some paper event news.
I do want to address one small issue from last week's article. I will definitely do another one of these, but in the Daze + Wasteland section I mentioned being down on spells and a land, and that's not 100% accurate. You're technically only down the spell in that scenario, but the whole thing is easy to play around so don't fall for it!
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Predictionary - The Game of Predicting B&R!
We're officially coming up on the August 26th Banned and Restricted Announcement in just 12 days. There's a lot to wonder about this announcement, especially since it's likely to impact multiple formats. For Legacy however, a lot is going on that could happen, so let's come up with some predictions as to what could happen during this Banned and Restricted announcement.
The Safe Option - Grief is Banned
I think out of all of the options here, this is the most expected one and the safest option overall. Much of the community ire has been leveled at Grief and the Scam package, and players are simply tired of seeing the card. What is interesting about this option is that while it remains the most likely option, numerous people have flipped off of Grief shells in events, but it's hard to tell if this is due in part to other cards or those players simply choosing not to play Grief because they are tired of its existence.
Regardless, I think this is what actually happens on August 26th. It's the most logical outcome.
Planning Ahead - Grief and Psychic Frog are Banned
This is in my estimate sort of a long shot to happen immediately in the same banning, but if Wizards is planning ahead for the future of the format, it is a possible option to ban not only Grief, but also to take action against Psychic Frog. Frog has quickly become one of the format's most omni-present tempo threats, and the laundry list of things this card does is pretty good. It is of course, the go-to threat now and when Grief goes away, so the possibility of Frog going as well is sort of real if they are thinking ahead of how the format will react. Already we're seeing people playing decks without the Grief package and Psychic Frog so that should say a lot about this card's power level.
I do think that longer-term eventually there comes a time when Legacy players are so sick of this card that it ends up getting banned, but I don't think it gets banned in the same ban cycle as Grief. While the card is powerful, it's also pretty fun to actually play with and it feels like there is counterplay to it, counterplay that is sort of actively removed by the Grief package. I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.
The Dual Approach - Grief and Something From Eldrazi is Banned
Notice how pretty much every option here starts with Grief being banned. I think this is a bygone conclusion at this point. The card has seen too much discussion and any scenario where Grief doesn't get banned (and we'll talk about that) seems very far-fetched. That being said, there is a possibility that Wizards considers the effect that both Grief and the new Eldrazi decks are having on the format as a whole and decides to go two-pronged to attack both of those strategies. We've seen this before with other bannings where Wizards targets multiple decks to bring down overall power level on both.
For Eldrazi, I think the largest possible offender here is Glaring Fleshraker, as it is one of those cards that quickly pushes the damage threat level in a game and accelerates things quickly, especially if you can get more than one of them on board. I don't think this is super likely as I think the Eldrazi deck is good, but it is beatable, and even newer cards are impacting it as well. Again, like with Psychic Frog though, I could see a world where people are tired of this deck and something from it goes away, and I do think if that was going to be anything, it would be Fleshraker.
The Nuclear Approach - Banning Several Cards
This is a long shot option as we know that Wizards doesn't like to ban a large amount of cards typically in one ban cycle. That being said, we know that there's a lot on people's mind as to what happens once Grief goes away, and cards like Frog, Bowmasters, and even Up the Beanstalk are incredibly powerful and ready to fill those voids left by the card. We already talked a little about Eldrazi, and that has further potential to be good in the absence of Grief. It's possible Wizards decides to take a full on sledgehammer to these cards and get rid of them all.
That being said, it's like 0.5% possibility honestly that this occurs. Wizards has shown in the past that they prefer to make small changes to Legacy, knowing reasonably the expense of the format and how slow the format changes overall and would rather give people opportunities to adapt than to outright slay a swath of decks in one swoop.
The Non Approach - Other Cards are Banned and Not Grief, or No Changes
This is the approach I expect the least of all, like 0.00001% of this occurring, and that's a world where Grief isn't actually banned, and possibly other cards are banned in its place (either some of the cards listed above already or other things), or they announce "No Changes" for Legacy.
The primary reason I feel like this won't happen at all is due largely in part to consumer confidence in Wizards for managing formats. No Changes or no ban of the most egregiously talked about card would show that Wizards is actively not listening to the community, despite mentioning that they are considering community sentiment for these older formats. I don't see this happening at all.
The Wild Card - Something is Unbanned at the Same Time as Grief is Banned
This is something, surprisingly, that I could actually see. We've seen in the past a few of these "This card is banned, this card is now unbanned" things occur in Legacy. We saw Mind's Desire come off the banned list to very little effect on Legacy as a whole, so it is genuinely possible we could see an unbanning at the same time as Grief gets banned.
What that could be is certainly interesting. There aren't many cards left on the banned list that could be reasonably unbanned (and while I would love to see Survival of the Fittest I doubt it ever happens) but some cards like Frantic Search, Imperial Seal, and Earthcraft have long been thought to be safe to come off. Is it possible that we see one of these situations? It's more likely than one thinks, it's just curious what will actually be the card that gets unbanned.
Looking Ahead
What do you think will happen on the August 26th Banned and Restricted Announcement? What's your wild prediction? Let me know below in the comments what your thoughts are. Regardless, it should be a very interesting announcement.
Buffalo Chicken Dip Legacy Open 3 - 8/17
This weekend is the double-header weekend of both the Buffalo Chicken Dip Legacy Open 3 and BCDL 16 at The Warp Gate! I'm excited to share that I will be the BCDL Open 3, but not in a playing capacity. I'm doing commentary for the coverage alongside Adam Wasburn-Moses! This should be super exciting. If you're coming out this weekend to this event, feel free to stop by the coverage table and say hi!
You can find the full announcement alongside registration links here.
Legacy Challenge 32 8/7
The first Challenge event of the week was the Wednesday event. According to the Daybreak Games event page, there was 51 players in this event. There was no data for this event.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here. The Top 8 is below.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| UB Tempo | 1st | Suzukiii |
| UB Tempo | 2nd | dganev |
| Mono Green Cloudpost | 3rd | Boucha |
| Eldrazi | 4th | GLAM_ |
| Red Stompy | 5th | _Shatun_ |
| Cephalid Breakfast | 6th | MisterAsiago |
| White Stompy | 7th | Nictophobia |
| UB Reanimator | 8th | 2plus2isfive |
Fairly interesting Top 8 here. At the end of the event it was a pair of UB Tempo decks in the finals.
These are both fairly similar lists, with the winner leaning harder on Tamiyo and Frog alongside Nethergoyf. The Second Place list has some Murktide action which synergizes nicely with Psychic Frog.
Also in this Top 8 we had White Stompy.
Two cards I really wanna talk about more are Guide of Souls and Ocelot Pride. These cards are really groovy, and they tend to come as a package deal because on their own, they're just sort of okay at best, but Ocelot can do some really powerful things. This deck is really sweet for sure.
Legacy Challenge 32 8/9
The second Challenge event of the week was the late night Friday event. According to the Daybreak Games event page, there was 49 players in this event. There was no data for this event.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here. The Top 8 is below.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Grixis Tempo | 1st | wakarock |
| Eldrazi | 2nd | DayBreakMe |
| Eldrazi | 3rd | waishi4life |
| Red Stompy | 4th | kokoko098 |
| Eldrazi | 5th | DNSolver |
| Grixis Tempo | 6th | LAURI_PROTOUR |
| Eldrazi | 7th | choutin |
| UB Reanimator | 8th | RedandSnap1 |
Quite a bit of Eldrazi in this Top 8, but at the end of the event it was Grixis Tempo that won.
Tamiyo is quite interesting, and while I've seen the card be good overall, I'm still rather unsure of it. I think it does do some unique things overall though, and has some power to it when flipping, but really I think the best thing is generating card draw.
In Second Place we had Eldrazi.
Interesting take on the deck. Only one Mox Diamond is intriguing as it's just another mana effect like Lotus Petal for acceleration.
Further down the Top 8 we had Red Stompy.
Very powerful and straightforward list overall here. Four copies of Dead // Gone in the main deck is a real statement though.
Legacy Challenge 32 8/10
The third Challenge event was the early morning Saturday event. According to the Daybreak Games event page, there was 47 players in this event. There was no data for this event.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here. The Top 8 is below.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday | 1st | m_himukai |
| Red Painter | 2nd | oskiyaa |
| White Stompy | 3rd | ElfKid |
| Boros Aggro | 4th | rikimaru6 |
| UB Tempo | 5th | Ark4n |
| UB Tempo | 6th | pepeteam |
| UB Reanimator | 7th | JPA93 |
| UB Reanimator | 8th | Munchlax446 |
Very interesting Top 8 in the top half, very UB heavy in the bottom half. At the end of the event it was Doomsday that won.
Pretty solid looking Doomsday list. I definitely think for a long time we'll see Consign to Memory as a staple sideboard card for blue decks. It's incredibly versatile.
In Second Place we have Painter.
If the prediction holds true that only Grief goes bye-bye on August 26th, then Painter has a very real time to shine as one of the predominant decks playing main deck Pyroblast effects.
Also in this Top 8 we had Boros Energy Aggro?!
Again with Ocelot Pride and Guide of Souls! This is literally Boros Energy in Legacy and I'm here for it. Very sweet deck. Also, FOUR COPIES of Jacked Rabbit?! INSANE.
Legacy Challenge 32 8/11
The final Challenge event of the weekend was the 32 player Sunday event. According to the Daybreak Games event page, there was 38 players in this event. There was no data for this event.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here. The Top 8 is below.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| BR Reanimator | 1st | Magic_Dads71522 |
| Beanstalk Control (Yorion) | 2nd | AnziD |
| UB Tempo | 3rd | Maxtortion |
| Bant Nadu | 4th | jibeta |
| UB Reanimator | 5th | _INF_ |
| UB Reanimator | 6th | Munchlax446 |
| Paradoxical Outcome | 7th | Chris_McNasty |
| Grixis Tempo | 8th | Kuranari-Jackpa |
Pretty cool Top 8. The event was in the end won by BR Reanimator.
Shallow Grave makes this variant much more in line with a Tin Fins build than classic Reanimator. Hitting an Atraxa off this has to be one of the coolest feelings in the world for sure.
In Second Place we had the one and only Anuraag Das on Beans.
This list is something. Holy cow. Multiple copies of Dress Down, Ground Seal, and four Consign to Memory in the sideboard? Hecking neat.
Also in this Top 8 we had PO.
Have not seen the PO deck in a hot minute for sure. Pretty cool to see this floating about again.
Around the Web
- The Eternal Glory Podcast has a new episode out. Check it out here.
- James Kisau has a new Grixis video out. Check it out here.
- The Legacy Gambit is playing some Mystic Forge. Check it out here.
- StrassDaddy is testing some Keen-Eyed Curator. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Now that Leagues are posted throughout the week, let's find some Spice!
Sick 4C Loam list.
SNEAK AND BREACH.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for continuing to support the column and join us next week as we continue our journey into Legacy!
As always you can reach me at all my associated links via my Link Tree! In addition I'm always around the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the MTGLegacy Discord Server.
Until next time!
