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Limited Analysis: Draft Fate Reforged / Khans of Tarkir

This data was collected by parsing Magic Online release drafts and seeing what cards were played. The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Note Win% on the Play/Draw is calculated with only the first game of each match.

Summary

Games Analyzed
39,579
Last Updated
2015-02-10

Game Length

Average Turns
9.6
Average Lands Played
7.2

Play or Draw?

Win % on the Play
49.8%
Win % on the Draw
50.2%

Mulligans

Mulligan to 6 5 4 3
Win % Average 36.50% 23.90% 8.30% 2.30%
Win % on the Play 34.00% 18.10% 4.80% 0.00%
Win % on the Draw 39.20% 30.60% 12.80% 0.00%
Games 11,667 2,130 290 43

Win Percentage by Color

w
51.6%
u
50.2%
b
51.5%
g
50.7%
r
50.7%

Top Cards

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Armament Corps 2wbg 1519 72.50%
2 Brutal Hordechief 3b 467 70.30%
3 Unmorph Hooded Hydra xgg 159 69.80%
4 Citadel Siege 2ww 839 67.70%
5 Wingmate Roc 3ww 354 67.60%

Top Commons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Harsh Sustenance 1wb 3263 63.70%
2 Trumpet Blast 2r 1369 63.30%
3 Barrage of Boulders 2r 1035 63.30%
4 Unmorph Snowhorn Rider 3gur 964 63.20%
5 Rush of Battle 3w 1950 62.60%

Top Uncommons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Armament Corps 2wbg 1519 72.50%
2 Ride Down rw 1086 66.80%
3 Pyrotechnics 4r 1140 64.00%
4 Dragonrage 2r 109 63.80%
5 Roar of Challenge 2g 569 63.80%
See All Card Stats >>

Archetypes

Colors Win % Field % Games
bwg 55.10% 13.10% 10,360
bwr 54.10% 13.10% 10,343
bwgr 53.70% 2.90% 2,329
ubwgr 53.50% 2.50% 1,983
ubwg 53.30% 4.30% 3,432
ubr 52.80% 0.50% 371
uwr 52.60% 11.80% 9,303
ugr 51.60% 8.70% 6,868
ubwr 51.30% 2.20% 1,758
ubg 51.10% 9.90% 7,836
ubgr 50.90% 2.30% 1,796
uwgr 48.40% 2.20% 1,743
uw 46.90% 2.90% 2,270
ubw 46.90% 1.00% 827
bw 46.80% 3.50% 2,761
uwg 45.70% 1.00% 819
wr 43.80% 3.30% 2,618
ur 43.70% 2.40% 1,877
bgr 43.30% 0.60% 443
gr 42.80% 1.50% 1,186
ug 42.60% 2.20% 1,734
wg 41.60% 1.60% 1,248
wgr 41.10% 0.60% 438
ub 40.30% 1.30% 1,037
br 39.60% 1.70% 1,309
bg 36.10% 1.90% 1,467
r 22.50% 0.40% 324
g 18.10% 0.20% 155
u 13.10% 0.20% 176
b 10.70% 0.20% 159
w 7.10% 0.20% 184

* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive (6rr) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.

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