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Limited Analysis: Draft Magic Origins x3
Summary
- Games Analyzed
- 58,328
- Last Updated
- 2015-08-09
Game Length
- Average Turns
- 9.1
- Average Lands Played
- 6.2
Play or Draw?
Win % on the Play
51.1%
Win % on the Draw
48.9%
Mulligans
| Mulligan to | 6 | 5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % Average | 37.30% | 23.90% | 11.60% |
| Win % on the Play | 34.50% | 20.00% | 10.40% |
| Win % on the Draw | 40.30% | 28.40% | 13.20% |
| Games | 17,594 | 3,268 | 423 |
Win Percentage by Color
50.2%
50.6%
50.1%
50.7%
51.4%
Top Cards
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whirler Rogue | 5571 | 66.40% | |
| 2 | Chandra's Ignition | 1269 | 66.30% | |
| 3 | Pia and Kiran Nalaar | 1968 | 64.70% | |
| 4 | Psychic Rebuttal | 14 | 64.20% | |
| 5 | Managorger Hydra | 2583 | 63.60% |
Top Commons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kytheon's Tactics | 2342 | 63.30% | |
| 2 | Act of Treason | 5623 | 61.30% | |
| 3 | Bone to Ash | 2303 | 61.10% | |
| 4 | Might of the Masses | 6636 | 59.90% | |
| 5 | Titanic Growth | 8093 | 58.70% |
Top Uncommons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whirler Rogue | 5571 | 66.40% | |
| 2 | Psychic Rebuttal | 14 | 64.20% | |
| 3 | Blazing Hellhound | 3162 | 60.60% | |
| 4 | Reclusive Artificer | 2131 | 60.50% | |
| 5 | Bounding Krasis | 2870 | 60.30% |
Archetypes
| Colors | Win % | Field % | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54.20% | 8.80% | 10,268 | |
| 53.60% | 6.20% | 7,225 | |
| 52.40% | 11.30% | 13,189 | |
| 52.00% | 8.30% | 9,733 | |
| 52.00% | 9.40% | 10,985 | |
| 51.60% | 10.20% | 11,873 | |
| 51.30% | 7.90% | 9,197 | |
| 51.10% | 10.30% | 12,045 | |
| 50.40% | 0.80% | 943 | |
| 49.80% | 7.10% | 8,234 | |
| 49.60% | 0.70% | 816 | |
| 49.10% | 8.00% | 9,377 | |
| 48.80% | 0.40% | 428 | |
| 48.50% | 0.60% | 693 | |
| 48.30% | 0.50% | 605 | |
| 47.30% | 0.60% | 647 | |
| 47.10% | 0.80% | 933 | |
| 46.90% | 0.70% | 774 | |
| 45.10% | 0.50% | 532 | |
| 44.30% | 0.60% | 695 | |
| 36.70% | 1.90% | 2,204 | |
| 28.00% | 1.20% | 1,347 | |
| 25.90% | 1.40% | 1,587 | |
| 23.10% | 1.10% | 1,276 | |
| 18.30% | 0.80% | 923 |
* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive ( ) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.
This data was collected by parsing Magic Online release drafts and seeing what cards were played. The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Note Win% on the Play/Draw is calculated with only the first game of each match. You can read the full analysis of this data in 58K Games of Magic Origins Limited Analyzed.