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Limited Analysis: Draft Dragons of Tarkir / Fate Reforged

This data was collected by parsing Magic Online release drafts and seeing what cards were played. The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Note Win% on the Play/Draw is calculated with only the first game of each match.

Summary

Games Analyzed
25,534
Last Updated
2015-04-19

Game Length

Average Turns
9.30779
Average Lands Played
6.37158

Play or Draw?

Win % on the Play
50.4%
Win % on the Draw
49.6%

Mulligans

Mulligan to 6 5 4 3
Win % Average 37.52% 19.90% 13.66% 0.00%
Win % on the Play 33.02% 18.35% 10.64% 0.00%
Win % on the Draw 42.49% 21.70% 16.85% 0.00%
Games 7,137 1,196 183 20

Win Percentage by Color

50.6%
48.7%
51.1%
49.1%
52.0%

Top Cards

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Magmatic Chasm 414 74.81%
2 Mob Rule 353 69.24%
3 Unmorph Jeskai Infiltrator 160 68.94%
4 Citadel Siege 690 67.72%
5 Press the Advantage 845 66.80%

Top Commons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Magmatic Chasm 414 74.81%
2 Unmorph Atarka Efreet 2894 66.16%
3 Volcanic Rush 456 66.15%
4 Temur Battle Rage 2294 63.64%
5 Unmorph Ojutai Interceptor 2352 61.82%

Top Uncommons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Press the Advantage 845 66.80%
2 Pyrotechnics 1120 65.21%
3 Great Teacher's Decree 1307 64.68%
4 Dragonrage 60 64.63%
5 Elite Scaleguard 1251 63.77%
See All Card Stats >>

Archetypes

Colors Win % Field % Games
55.28% 14.08% 7,189
55.08% 5.49% 2,805
54.47% 0.24% 123
53.92% 1.95% 994
52.38% 1.94% 989
52.31% 10.98% 5,605
52.16% 5.39% 2,753
51.28% 2.38% 1,213
50.52% 3.75% 1,916
49.96% 10.60% 5,412
49.92% 2.47% 1,262
49.77% 3.01% 1,539
49.71% 12.80% 6,536
49.34% 0.30% 152
49.27% 2.01% 1,027
48.90% 0.27% 137
48.61% 0.98% 502
48.14% 8.96% 4,578
48.11% 0.21% 106
48.10% 2.94% 1,499
47.92% 0.94% 480
46.67% 1.82% 930
46.48% 0.14% 71
43.71% 1.01% 517
41.48% 1.53% 781
40.87% 0.22% 115
33.33% 1.16% 594
29.08% 0.72% 368
14.49% 0.69% 352
14.35% 0.45% 230
12.37% 0.57% 291

* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive ( ) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.

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