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Limited Analysis: Draft Dragons of Tarkir / Fate Reforged

This data was collected by parsing Magic Online release drafts and seeing what cards were played. The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Note Win% on the Play/Draw is calculated with only the first game of each match.

Summary

Games Analyzed
25,534
Last Updated
2015-04-19

Game Length

Average Turns
9.30779
Average Lands Played
6.37158

Play or Draw?

Win % on the Play
50.4%
Win % on the Draw
49.6%

Mulligans

Mulligan to 6 5 4 3
Win % Average 37.52% 19.90% 13.66% 0.00%
Win % on the Play 33.02% 18.35% 10.64% 0.00%
Win % on the Draw 42.49% 21.70% 16.85% 0.00%
Games 7,137 1,196 183 20

Win Percentage by Color

w
50.6%
u
48.7%
b
51.1%
g
49.1%
r
52.0%

Top Cards

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Magmatic Chasm 1r 414 74.81%
2 Mob Rule 4rr 353 69.24%
3 Unmorph Jeskai Infiltrator 2u 160 68.94%
4 Citadel Siege 2ww 690 67.72%
5 Press the Advantage 2gg 845 66.80%

Top Commons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Magmatic Chasm 1r 414 74.81%
2 Unmorph Atarka Efreet 3r 2894 66.16%
3 Volcanic Rush 4r 456 66.15%
4 Temur Battle Rage 1r 2294 63.64%
5 Unmorph Ojutai Interceptor 3u 2352 61.82%

Top Uncommons

Card Cost Games Likely Win %
1 Press the Advantage 2gg 845 66.80%
2 Pyrotechnics 4r 1120 65.21%
3 Great Teacher's Decree 3w 1307 64.68%
4 Dragonrage 2r 60 64.63%
5 Elite Scaleguard 4w 1251 63.77%
See All Card Stats >>

Archetypes

Colors Win % Field % Games
br 55.28% 14.08% 7,189
wr 55.08% 5.49% 2,805
ubwg 54.47% 0.24% 123
ubr 53.92% 1.95% 994
bwr 52.38% 1.94% 989
wg 52.31% 10.98% 5,605
bw 52.16% 5.39% 2,753
ur 51.28% 2.38% 1,213
ubw 50.52% 3.75% 1,916
gr 49.96% 10.60% 5,412
bgr 49.92% 2.47% 1,262
wgr 49.77% 3.01% 1,539
ub 49.71% 12.80% 6,536
bwgr 49.34% 0.30% 152
uwg 49.27% 2.01% 1,027
ubgr 48.90% 0.27% 137
ugr 48.61% 0.98% 502
uw 48.14% 8.96% 4,578
ubwr 48.11% 0.21% 106
bg 48.10% 2.94% 1,499
uwr 47.92% 0.94% 480
bwg 46.67% 1.82% 930
ubwgr 46.48% 0.14% 71
ubg 43.71% 1.01% 517
ug 41.48% 1.53% 781
uwgr 40.87% 0.22% 115
r 33.33% 1.16% 594
w 29.08% 0.72% 368
g 14.49% 0.69% 352
u 14.35% 0.45% 230
b 12.37% 0.57% 291

* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive (6rr) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.

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