Vintage 101: February Metagame Check-In
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be checking in on the Vintage metagame after yet another month. We've also got some Challenge data plus data for a Vintage Qualifier event.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage in February 2025
Just like last month, we're keeping a close eye on Vintage every month until next month's Banned and Restricted update. I don't actually expect much to happen with Vintage during this update, but there is always some chatter about Lurrus in these updates, so who knows what could happen. Wizards has absolutely surprised us before with updates. I am again utilizing the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord from the time of the Saga banning to today's date of 2/10/2025 (the date this article was written). You can find a copy of that data here so its preserved for future look backs.
Let's first look at some graphical data.
There continues to be a lot to unpack with Vintage. At this current point in time, nearly 28% of the Vintage format is comprised of one major macro archetype, and that is Lurrus.
To say that Lurrus continues to be pushed in Vintage is a real understatement. Since last month the overall amount of decks went up from 3,460 to 4,421 and the macro archetype of Lurrus went up a full percentage from 26.7% to 27.8% of the metagame (924 decks to 1227 decks). It can be established that if you're playing Vintage, the chances of running into any deck that plays Lurrus is exceedingly high.
Now, much of the Lurrus umbrella is broken up into a few different shades of Lurrus. They all tend to run a lot of the same cards, but there's some distinct aspects of each. Dimir Lurrus and Esper Lurrus do play somewhat differently due to the presence of Esper's removal and threats like Lavinia. Lurrus PO is a combo deck, while Lurrus DRS is leveraging Deathrite Shaman, but they are all pushing hard on the powerful aspect that is Lurrus. Each of these shades of the deck are also doing very well, with each of them having a solid above 50% win rate, and all of them having above 53% non-mirror win rates.
What this means for Vintage is that not only is Lurrus extremely popular, but it's also very, very good.
In terms of subarchetypes however, the popularity of each shade of the deck is high, but not exactly the highest. The highest single subarchetype in the format currently still is Initiative.
Initiative does remain a very popular deck, and a lot of that is because I think the deck gets access to not just a lot of tools that are good in the current metagame, but it's an aggressive Stompy-like deck that doesn't play Workshops and I think people do like that. Initiative itself is still a very busted mechanic, but the overall win rate of the deck is just very medium. In fact it only boasts a 50.3% non-mirror win rate. Initiative had a solid boost from last month to this month, going from 506 decks to 643 decks.
However, due to its popularity, if you aren't playing against some form of Lurrus, you're possibly playing against Initiative or one of the two decks I'll talk about next.
Dredge continues to be an omnipresent part of Vintage, but I do think maybe its popularity could be slowing down a bit. While Lurrus in general went from 924 decks as a macro archetype to 1227 decks, Dredge only really went from 439 to 525, which is not a ton of growth. It also boasts the weakest win rate out of the top decks with only having a 48.4% non-mirror win rate. Dredge is popular because it's Dredge in Vintage, and is often seen as a format boogeyman, but in all reality its power is tempered by the format being prepared for it. I'll be curious to see if Dredge continues to slow down in growth rate. It's an okay deck and it can do well in events at times, but it's definitely not doing well overall since last August.
Jewel Shops had a solid growth from 389 decks to 505 decks overall, and its win rate is a reasonable 51.3% non-mirror. Jewel is another deck that has some weak points however, and I wonder how long it can continue to hold up against the metagame. The big winning point in its favor however is that the rest of the metagame can't hate out everything, and Dredge requires a lot of sideboard slots to compete against it, so that gives Jewel a slight edge in sideboard metagaming.
Outside of these Top 5 decks, we get to things like Doomsday, Oath, and even Breach. Of these, Doomsday is the deck that continues to look great in current Vintage, and it went from 176 decks to 264 decks with a good looking 54.7% non-mirror win rate. Conversely, Breach looks just reasonable while Oath seems is struggling a bit. It's very clear that the combo deck of the format is very much Doomsday, though. It's the combo deck with the best performance overall, and it converts quite well in events for some really good players.
As I sit and look upon this metagame, I honestly continue to remain not very thrilled with Vintage overall at the moment. I have to imagine that some of these games can have some elements of fun to them, and that Vintage does have elements that are interesting, but I don't really find the Lurrus metagame to be fun for me still. There is a commonality of a bunch of Lurrus decks having some of the best win rates in the format, followed by Doomsday, Initiative, and Jewel that are just sort of revolving around those Lurrus decks, and that for me feels very awkward. Lurrus representing a soft ban of control shells running permanents that cost three or more is something I dislike in general.
I'll be curious to see if anything really changes before the B&R in March. At this point, it's really only Aetherdrift and while there were some cards I thought looked cool, the format could also just reasonably keep on going and not even attempt to integrate anything from that set.
One thing I will note, is I do think many Vintage players are possibly sleeping on a card like Nadu, Winged Wisdom, but I think a large part of that is because Lurrus is so omnipresent. I do believe if Lurrus were to be dealt with that Nadu could be a deck we'd see crop up.
Still, I'm of the mind that I do wish for changes to Vintage as a format in March, and although I'd like to be wrong and that Vintage can pull itself out of this type of metagame organically. I don't think it will, and the restrictions made to target Lurrus as an archetype didn't really do much to it in the long run. I also would hate to see that change be a restriction to something like Psychic Frog because I feel like that would be missing the really obvious point of these decks, and that is Lurrus. Considering that Wizards continually mentions Lurrus as a card in B&Rs where even no changes are made, that tells me that Wizards is definitely okay with leveraging the power they need to in order to take care of Lurrus.
What are your thoughts on the current Vintage format? Are you having fun with it? Let me know in the comments below.
Vintage Qualifier 2/8/2025
This past weekend was a Vintage Qualifier event. This is a Premier Play event that costs Qualification Points to enter, and the top two finishers in the event receive an invitation to an upcoming Regional Championship. It's functionally an RCQ type event. This event had 111 players in it, which is pretty sweet.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was the most played deck of the event, and while it had some strong Top 8 finishes, its overall win rate was dragged down by the number of players just below 50%. Both Initiative and Sphere Shops looked strong, as did Doomsday and Esper Lurrus. Jewel Shops did not have a good event it looked like.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday | 1st | ScreenwriterNY |
| Initiative | 2nd | bernardocssa |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | mashirorc |
| Sphere Shops | 4th | _Shatun_ |
| Oath | 5th | maat33 |
| Dimir Lurrus | 6th | Ark4n |
| Lurrus PO | 7th | unluckymonkey |
| Initiative | 8th | scipios |
Somewhat reasonable spread of decks. At the end of the event it was Doomsday that won.
This is a very good looking list. I love seeing more surveil lands in Vintage, and more decks should consider at least running one. They are a really powerful effect and serve many decks well. I enjoy that Doomsday is a deck that is able to really utilize full four of Ponder as well.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
Some interesting numbers here. One Thalia is kind of interesting, as well as one Solitude. Boromir, Warden of the Tower is pretty cool to see as a bit of a Lavinia effect. It's an interesting build and I'm curious on the math of the singleton effects.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/6/2025
The first Challenge event of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 50 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was the most popular deck of the event, and it had a pretty strong win rate. Dredge, Doomsday, and Sphere Shops all looked great here, while Jewel Shops again suffered really hard.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dimir Lurrus | 1st | duke12 |
| Initiative | 2nd | _Chamytinho_ |
| Dredge | 3rd | Mogg_Flunkies |
| Dredge | 4th | matttothec |
| Doomsday | 5th | 2plus2isfive |
| Sphere Shops | 6th | Wesal |
| BUG | 7th | grumgrum |
| Esper Lurrus | 8th | bcs8995 |
Solid spread of decks. At the end of the event it was Dimir Lurrus that won.
Legacy's Allure is one heck of a card honestly. It seems pretty sweet. I am definitely curious how well it plays out.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
This list is a bit cleaner looking, still leaning on the Stillmoon Cavalier, which I do think is quite good at the moment in specific matchups (very specifically the mirror and Lurrus). Multiple pieces of graveyard hate says that many of these decks are really respecting Dredge at the moment.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/7/2025
The second Challenge event of the week was the Friday event. This event had 40 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was the most popular deck, but despite a good placing its overall win rate was super dragged down. Esper Lurrus and Sphere Shops looked fantastic, and even Jewel looked good but that's because only two people was playing it, and one person made Top 8.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Sphere Shops | 1st | Wesal |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | discoverN |
| Esper Lurrus | 3rd | PierrePoilievre2025 |
| Esper Lurrus | 4th | Montolio |
| Jewel Shops | 5th | haveaboavida |
| Doomsday | 6th | Tsubasa_Cat |
| Esper Lurrus | 7th | maytwer |
| Dimir Lurrus | 8th | O_danielakos |
Lot of Lurrus in this Top 8 (at least 5/8 of the Top 8). At the end of the event it was Sphere Shops that won.
Lot of strong effects like Stonecoil Serpent and Patchwork Automaton here, both threats that can be deployed and function well through Null Rod, which can be brutal versus other decks. A one-two combo of Spheres and Null Rod plus one of these threats can typically be more than enough to bring home a win.
In Second Place we had Dimir Lurrus.
Same list as the one that won the other Challenge event. Legacy's Allure! I also am happy seeing surveil lands in this deck, as they do provide this kind of deck a powerful effect to do if just fetching to fetch.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/8/2025
The third Challenge event of the week was the Saturday event. This event had 42 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was again the most popular deck. It had 3/8 of the deck in the Top 8, but the rest of the players dragged the win rate down to 44.2% (ah the problem with popularity!). Dredge looked good, as did Doomsday.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday | 1st | Diem4x |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | O_danielakos |
| Initiative | 3rd | Cabezadebolo |
| Countervine | 4th | ZollZollZoll |
| Dredge | 5th | matttothec |
| Dimir Lurrus | 6th | Rhianne |
| Initiative | 7th | LasVegasChaos |
| Dimir Lurrus | 8th | HellMonkey |
As noted, 3/8 Lurrus in the Top 8. At the end of the event it was Doomsday that won.
Full suite of both Ponder and Preordain is quite interesting honestly. Lot of cantrips for sure. The sideboard here is nice and clean, with some minor juke effects like Murktide.
In Second Place we had Dimir Lurrus.
I actively scrolled this decklist for Legacy's Allure. Sad to not find it. Still, solid looking list!
Vintage Challenge 32 2/9/2025
The final Challenge event of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 38 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was still the most popular deck (shocker I know), with a win rate just above 50%. Jewel Shops did not do well here, and most of the other decks were medium over or under 50%. Lurrus PO did well, because well, let's look at the Top 8 to see why.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus PO | 1st | unluckymonkey |
| Fleshraker Shops | 2nd | crK |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | Rhianne |
| Oops! All Spells | 4th | medvedev |
| Initiative | 5th | LasVegasChaos |
| Dimir Lurrus | 6th | Ark4n |
| Dimir Lurrus | 7th | RikRin |
| Doomsday | 8th | Jujkata |
Half the event was Lurrus, but the winner was Lurrus PO.
Okay Thundertrap Trainer is kind of a sweet card. I doubt you're ever Offspringing it (but heck weirder things have happened), and it counts as a Wizard for Flame of Anor (as does Snapcaster). Being able to cast the Trainer over and over with Lurrus seems incredibly sweet.
In Second Place we had Fleshraker Shops.
Scrawling Crawler is such a sick card. Making your opponent lose life for drawing cards is one really quick way to kill decks like Jewel, and it being loss of life instead of damage gets around The One Ring. This list is sweet.
Around the Web
- FGC has a video on NADU. People are vastly sleeping on this card, I feel. Check it out here.
- Kindamtg is playing Vampire Soldiers. Check it out here.
- ZiasMTG has Workshop Vine list. Check it out here.
- Justin Gennari has officially not called it a comeback.
The Spice Corner
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
