Vintage 101: April 2025 Metagame Check-In
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at where Vintage is at during the month of April. In addition we're going to be looking at some Challenges from last week.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage in April 2025
It's been a hot minute since we last checked in on the Vintage metagame, so I think it's definitely a good time to see where Vintage is sitting. This data set goes back to the restrictions of Urza's Saga and Vexing Bauble and was crowdsourced by the folks in the MTGO Vintage Community. You can find the copy I made of the aggregate data here.
Since the restrictions, Vintage has seen a number of set releases from Duskmourn into Aetherdrift and Tarkir: Dragonstorm. Of these sets, Aetherdrift had a huge impact on Vintage overall with the printing of Stock Up, while Tarkir has begun to have a number of smaller impacts with cards like Clarion Conqueror.
Let's start by looking at the graphical data for the format.
From a macro archetype level, Lurrus decks in entirety comprise around 30% exactly of the Vintage format. We've talked a lot about Lurrus in general as the card has a lot of baggage associated with the fact that there is a fair amount of discussion around whether Lurrus is or isn't hurting Vintage as a format. The current landscape of the format has shown that some things are being balanced and it isn't necessary to touch Lurrus right now, but it's something that I wouldn't be upset at seeing leave. In fact, the first place we see individual Lurrus archetypes in the subarchetypes is Third-Fourth here after Initiative and Dredge as the two largest Lurrus decks. It's probably fine being a fair deck as the best Lurrus strategy, honestly, as much as I dislike the card personally.
Initiative is the most represented individual subarchetype, at 12.4% of the format. The deck currently has around a 50% win rate which is really pretty good. I think Initiative is popular because it's a non Workshop aggro deck and I do think people really enjoy that. That being said, I do also think it's a deck that can be easily attacked by a number of decks in the format. The deck did gain some new tools in the past months and it has some strong finishes over that time. It's definitely a good deck and I think it's reasonable to have in this space.
Dredge is still incredibly popular, and I think unless there's a huge shift in the format that's unlikely to ever change. Dredge being a known quantity however, it's win rate is worse than 50% and it's a deck that is pretty easy for every deck in the format to attack it when it wants to. Dredge operates on an event to event basis and whether people are thinking about it as a deck at any given moment, so it's long term aggregation is definitely likely to be lower in terms of win rate.
Both Dimir and Esper Lurrus look to be in a very solid place. Both decks sit in this space around 52-53% win rate and have reasonable metagame share. I don't think there's a true argument made for one or the other still, which also keeps Lurrus in a space where it's more diversified into various shells.
Jewel Shops is still in that top five of decks in terms of metagame share, with a very minimally over 50% win rate at around 51.1%. It's certainly a powerful deck still, but it's another deck that's easy for the metagame to attack if it wants to.
My overall consensus on Vintage currently is that the format had a brief time where the printing of Stock Up did renew certain archetypes like Beseech and Oath but that the overall metagame has re-settled back into this back and forth over Lurrus, Initiative, Jewel, and now Raker. Stock Up's prevalence here has wormed its way more into the Lurrus decks (such as Lurrus Breach and Lurrus PO, both of which are in a great space). It's awkward that the format seems to revert to the same types of gameplay and seems very similar to the format after the restrictions. If anything, at the bare minimum the aspect of Initiative being much better has impacted things, but the format does feel largely the same.
I'll be curious to see what happens going forward. Our next Standard set will be Universes Beyond: Final Fantasy so it will be interesting to see what might come out of that.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/17/2025
The first Challenge event of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 40 players in it thanks to the Vintage MTGO Community.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most popular deck of the event, and given the deck's recent new cards, I'm not super surprised. It did very well, as did Raker Shops, Esper Lurrus, Lurrus Breach, and Lurrus PO. Dredge and Oath did not do all that well here.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Initiative | 1st | ecobaronen |
| Lurrus Breach | 2nd | RatherBplayingMTG |
| Raker Shops | 3rd | Jumba |
| Esper Lurrus | 4th | _Batutinha_ |
| Initiative | 5th | wcl |
| Raker Shops | 6th | mortr3d |
| Jeskai Lurrus | 7th | TrueHero |
| Initiative | 8th | _Shatun_ |
Quite a bit of Initiative and Raker Shops here. At the end of the event it was Initiative that won.
Clarion Conqueror has certainly become a very real thing, seemingly having hedged out some main deck removal pieces this deck usually played (usually March of Otherworldly Light) in this specific list breakdown. Those spots are looking like they are leaning more towards more lands in the manabase as well as Trinisphere. It's interesting but I think it makes sense with more 2W cards to cast, having more lands to enable that is nice.
In Second Place we had Lurrus Breach.
Pretty straightforward looking Breach list here. Abrade main deck seems quite smart given the prevalence of cards that can stop this deck that are seeing play main deck (such as the aforementioned Clarion Conqueror). Seems like a pretty solid decision to make.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/18/2025
The second Challenge event of the week was the Friday event. This event had 45 players in it thanks to the Vintage MTGO Community.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Both Raker and Initiative were super popular, with both having strong win rates. Lurrus Breach and Dredge looked good here, while Oops and Beseech did not.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus Breach | 1st | Killah_SUV |
| Raker Shops | 2nd | Marcuzinho |
| Initiative | 3rd | monzatubarao |
| Jeskai Lurrus | 4th | CrazyDiamond513 |
| Lurrus Breach | 5th | Tsubasa_Cat |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | duke12 |
| Raker Shops | 7th | LucasG1ggs |
| Esper Lurrus | 8th | _Batutinha_ |
Quite a bit of Lurrus here. At the end of the event it was Lurrus Breach that won.
Pretty much the same list that came in Second in the previous Challenge. I do like the Thundering Falls in these lists. Surveil lands in general should be played a lot, because they are quite good and fun cards to play.
In Second Place we had Raker Shops.
Pretty standard list for this deck. Realistically, there doesn't need to be many frills, because the deck is very good without having to go too deep.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/19/2025
The third Challenge event of the week was the Saturday event. This event had 48 players in it thanks to the Vintage MTGO Community.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Lurrus Breach was the most popular deck here, but despite two Top 8 appearances it's overall win rate was not as good. Esper Lurrus looked good as did Beseech.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Doomsday | 1st | sixmp |
| Initiative | 2nd | _Shatun_ |
| Lurrus Breach | 3rd | desolutionist |
| Esper Lurrus | 4th | bless_von |
| Raker Shops | 5th | LucasG1ggs |
| Lurrus Breach | 6th | Killah_SUV |
| Jewel Shops | 7th | cantillon |
| Red Prison | 8th | WadeB |
Very interesting Top 8. At the end of the event, it was Doomsday that won.
Pretty straightforward list here. I do think Subtlety is quite a cool card in the sideboard given just how prevalent Initiative is. Being able to get around Cavern of Souls is huge, even for just a turn to be able to combo off.
In Second Place, we had Initiative.
I wouldn't be super surprised to see this version become the new normal for a while. Initiative is a deck that does have some flex spots to accommodate what's going on in the metagame, so it could certainly shift again, but I think this is likely the configuration we'll see going forward.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/20/2025
The final Challenge event of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 41 players in it thanks to the Vintage MTGO Community.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was heavily played here, and despite having two in the Top 8 it's overall win rate was not as good. Doomsday and Raker Shops also didn't fare too well. Dimir Lurrus looked great.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dimir Lurrus | 1st | Navas |
| Stiflenought | 2nd | mosh110 |
| Initiative | 3rd | _Shatun_ |
| Lurrus Breach | 4th | desolutionist |
| Dredge | 5th | Munchlax446 |
| Initiative | 6th | Jinjaa |
| Oath | 7th | Wesal |
| Sphere Shops | 8th | Sommertroll |
This is a pretty solid Top 8. At the end of the event, it was Dimir Lurrus that won.
I think Snapcaster Mage is kind of a sweet usage for Lurrus decks. Being able to flash back something on your turn can indeed be pretty cool.
In Second Place we had Stiflenought.
Oh, this list is pretty sweet. It's a pretty recent development that Dreadnought decks were being considered in this current format, but they make a lot of sense. Multiple main deck Dress Down is pretty sweet again in the current format. Clarion Conqueror in the sideboard here, too, is solid.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has some spice for us.
- BoshNRoll is running off with TonyScapone's Beseech list. Check it out here.
- DB3MTG is playing Vintage BUG DELVER. Check it out here.
- kindamtg is playing Battlefront Oath. Check it out here.
- Revenantkioku is doing some Doomsday in the Vintage Challenges. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Lurrus Breach with Voice of Victory!
Jeskai STEEL CUTTER
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition, you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
