Tier Ranking Pioneer Decks Based on Explorer Potential

The long wait is almost over. Wizards is finally adding a non-rotating format to Magic Arena that's untainted by nerfs, buffs, and digital-only cards in Explorer. While (according to Wizards, over the next several years, although hopefully sooner) Explorer will evolve into Pioneer proper in the long term, right now, Explorer is Pioneer but with cards that exist on Magic Arena, which makes it a bit more than half of Pioneer by the numbers. As a result, you can't simply pick your favorite Pioneer deck and play it in Explorer because some of the cards you need might be missing. So today, we're going to go through every deck that makes up at least 1% of the Pioneer meta—nearly 20 decks—and tier-rank them based on their Explorer potential while also discussing which important cards are missing from each deck. Here's our tier list scale for today:

• SS Tier: My picks for the very best decks in Explorer.
• S Tier: Likely tier-one decks that need minimal changes to work in Explorer.
• A Tier: Missing something but probably still good in Explorer.
• B Tier: Needs some rebuilding but potentially still good in Explorer.
• C Tier: Needs a major overhaul / probably bad in Explorer.
• F Tier: Dead on arrival / won't exist in Explorer.

SS Tier: The Best Decks in Explorer

Two decks are my picks for the best decks in Explorer because they are currently the best decks in Pioneer and need minimal changes to work with the Magic Arena card pool. First up is Naya Winota. As you can see, we have Naya Winota lists. The first is the most traditional build, which is missing a couple of pieces in Llanowar Elves and Voice of Resurgence. The second is a tournament-winning Winota list that just happens to be completely legal in Explorer, which shows just how easily the deck can adapt to the Explorer format without losing much power. The ability to create a huge battlefield quickly by ramping into Winota, Joiner of Forces and attacking with some random dorks is incredibly scary, making Winota my early pick for best deck in Explorer. This is to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if Winota, Joiner of Forces ended up banned in the format, especially since decks like Winota are even tougher to deal with in best-of-one without access to a sideboard, and best-of-one play is extremely popular on Magic Arena.

The one deck that might be able to keep Winota in check is our second double-S-tier archetype: UW Control. In Pioneer proper, UW Control is one of the best decks in the meta (joining Winota and Mono-Red Aggro as the tier-one archetypes), and even though the list is 95 cards thanks to Yorion, Sky Nomad, it loses just Supreme Verdict. While having an uncounterable wrath is nice, it's only a two-of in the deck, and we have plenty of almost-as-good replacements between Doomskar, Depopulate, and Shatter the Sky. I fully expect UW Control to battle Winota for the title of best deck in Explorer, and it could even end up the #1 overall deck in the format, depending on how the rest of the metagame shakes out.

S Tier: Likely Tier One

Kicking off S tier are two Cat Oven Sacrifice lists: Rakdos Sacrifice and Jund Sacrifice. While they technically are different archetypes, with Rakdos being more low to the ground and leaning on artifact synergies like Oni-Cult Anvil, and Jund going bigger with Korvold, Fae-Cursed King and Food synergies, they are pretty similar in a broad sense, with both looking to grind out the game with Cauldron Familiar, Witch's Oven, and Mayhem Devil. While I have no idea which build will be better in Explorer (Rakdos Sac is slightly more popular in Pioneer proper, although both builds are solidly in the second tier, and their metagame share is similar to UW Control if you combine them), considering that neither build loses anything of note in making the jump to Explorer, I would be shocked if some form of Cat Oven Sacrifice deck weren't tier one in the new format.

Our other S-tier archetype is Mardu Greasefang, which loses just a single copy of Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth from its mana base, which is super easy to replace with another dual land. We've seen the plan of using Greasefang, Okiba Boss to reanimate Parhelion II be incredibly strong in both Pioneer and Historic, and there's little reason to expect Explorer to be any different. While I expect Mardu Greasefang to be a tier deck in best-of-three Explorer, it will really shine in best-of-one Explorer, where it's difficult to play hosers like Rest in Peace or Leyline of the Void since they are dead cards in many matchups. In best-of-one, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mardu Greasefang rival Winota for the title of best deck in the format.

A Tier: Missing Something but Likely Good

Speaking of Greasefang, the other dominant biker Rat deck in Pioneer is Esper Greasefang, which is basically a combo-control deck (whereas Mardu Greasefang is combo-midrange). While Esper Greasefang still has its key combo of Greasefang, Okiba Boss and Parhelion II, it is missing a few important support cards, including Collective Brutality and Silence. Silence specifically is a huge loss. Mardu Greasefang has a legitimate backup plan of beating down with random midrange creatures; Esper Greasefang doesn't. If it can't cheat a Parhelion II into play, it's mostly just attacking with Greasefang, Okiba Boss, which isn't likely to win the game. Silence ensures that Esper Greasefang can resolve its combo and get in a Parhelion II attack through the counters of UW Control and against instant-speed interaction. Since there isn't a great replacement in Explorer (the closest is Revel in Silence, but costing two mana slows the deck down by an entire turn, which might not be worthwhile), Explorer Esper Greasefang will be a lot more disruptible than the Pioneer version, although it still should be able to pick up a lot of free wins and, much like Mardu Greasefang, is well suited for best-of-one play, where you don't have to fight through sideboard counters and graveyard hate.

Also in A tier is Fires of Invention. In Pioneer proper, there are two primary builds of Fires, one being a Transmogrify-into–Agent of Treachery enchantment-focused deck and the other being Superfriends. Neither deck loses much of significance, with the Transmogrify build losing Chained to the Rocks, which is easily replaced by some other removal spell (maybe Fateful Absence) and the Superfriends build losing Supreme Verdict (which, as we already discussed, can be replaced by several other four-mana wraths) and a single copy of Elspeth, Sun's Champion, which is a solid planeswalker but not irreplaceable. As such, the good news is that you can port your Pioneer Fires list to Explorer with minimal changes. The bad news? In Pioneer, Fires is more of a fun second- or even third-tier option rather than one of the best decks in the format. It will be interesting to see how good it ends up being in Explorer, although my bet is that it will be a popular archetype because Explorer is the one format on Arena where you can play the real version of Fires of Invention rather than a nerfed monstrosity. 

Our last A-tier archetype is Rakdos Midrange, which is missing two big pieces: Dreadbore (which is easily replaced by Bedevil or Angrath's Rampage) and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet (which doesn't really have an obvious replacement in the format). While losing Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet does hurt - it's an extremely flexible threat, offering graveyard hate, a bit lifelink body against aggro and Zombie protection as you  cast removal spells - in reality Rakdos Midrange is basically the Jund of Pioneer. It's not really about one specific card, and instead just depends on playing all of the best removal and threats available. My guess it that Rakdos Midrange players will just play the next best option, which might be more copies of Sorin the Mirthless or Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger or something new all together, and the deck will be just fine.

B Tier: Missing Stuff, Possibly Still Good Enough With Some Work

Mono-Red Aggro is one of the three tier-one decks in Pioneer, although it does have two big losses heading to Explorer. First and foremost, Eidolon of the Great Revel doesn't exist on Magic Arena, and there really isn't another card in Magic that does what Eidolon does. Cemetery Gatekeeper is probably the most similar card legal in Explorer, although it's much, much worse than Eidolon of the Great Revel. The other big loss is Monastery Swiftspear. While there isn't another red one-drop with prowess to replace it, there are plenty of one-drop options, ranging from Reinforced Ronin to Falkenrath Pit Fighter to Ghitu Lavarunner. While any of these cards would represent a drop in power compared to Monastery Swiftspear, they are all decent enough to see play. 

I fully expect we'll have some sort of red aggro deck in Explorer, maybe even in the top tier of the meta, but these two losses mean that you can't simply grab Pioneer Mono-Red and play it in the format. Maybe players will simply play the next best options, or perhaps they will go in a different direction altogether (like adding Ghitu Lavarunner for a Wizards sub-theme to support Wizard's Lightning). We'll have to wait and see, but the game plan of getting your opponent's life total to zero as quickly as possible by curving out with cheap red creatures and burn spells has been powerful for nearly three decades now. In one form or another, it probably will be in Explorer as well.

Mono-Black Aggro is similar to Mono-Red Aggro in that it loses a couple of big pieces but should still be pretty playable with replacements. Bloodsoaked Champion is a solid one-drop for the deck, although it can be replaced by Gutterbones in the recursive Savannah Lions one-drop slot. Mutavault is harder to replace, just because none of the creaturelands in Explorer are as efficient. But adding more copies of Hive of the Eye Tyrant or snow lands and [[Faceless Haven] would probably be good enough to keep the deck competitive in Explorer.

Our final B-tier deck is Mono-Blue Spirits, which technically only loses a single card making the jump to Explorer, but it is a good one: Mausoleum Wanderer. Apart from being the best one-drop Spirit, thanks to its combination of growing as Spirits enter the battlefield and disrupting opponents' wraths and removal with its sacrifice Mana Tithe ability, the big problem with Spirits losing Mausoleum Wanderer is that there simply isn't a good replacement. With Ascendant Spirit and Spectral Sailor already as four-ofs in the deck, the next best one-drop Spirit for the deck is Lantern Bearer, which is pretty much draft chaff. While Spirits can probably replace Mausoleum Wanderer with a more expensive tribe member, this comes at a cost because the most powerful thing the deck can do is stick a flying Spirit on Turn 1 and a Curious Obsession on Turn 2 to start snowballing card advantage. With fewer one-drops in the deck, this start will happen less often, which might be a deal-breaker. The other possibility is that the deck just drops the Spirit theme and becomes a Mono-Blue Tempo Curious Obsession deck.

C Tier: Needs a Massive Overhaul / Probably Bad

First up in C tier us 5C Humans, which loses Mantis Rider, Reflector Mage, Experiment One, and Mana Confluence. Experiment One is easy to replace—there are about a million Human one-drops—but the rest are not. In general, a deck missing a land isn't a big deal—you can just replace it with something else and not lose much. But a five-color deck losing a five-color land is an exception to the rule, just because there aren't many five-color lands available. When you add in the loss of two key three-drops in Mantis Rider and Reflector Mage, the dream of Five-Color Humans seems dead in Explorer for now.

The good news is that if you're a Humans fan, WB Humans (or Abzan Humans, splashing for Collected Company) exists and should be pretty playable in Explorer. The Pioneer build loses just Mutavault, which is annoying but not deadly. And there are still plenty of good Humans, like Thalia's Lieutenant, Adeline, Resplendent Cathar, and friends, even if you stick to just two colors. I think the five-color builds could overcome bad mana (thanks to the loss of Mana Confluence) or lacking three-drops (thanks to no Mantis Rider and Reflector Mage) but not both. If you want your Humans fix in Explorer, stick to two or three colors until we get more cards added to the client.

Izzet Phoenix was probably the toughest deck to rank. On one hand, I fully expect someone will build a Arclight Phoenix deck for Explorer and that the deck will probably be pretty decent. On the other hand, the deck loses a ton with the jump from Pioneer, including key cards like Thing in the Ice, Treasure Cruise, Izzet Charm, and Temporal Trespass. So whatever build of Phoenix we end up with in Explorer probably won't look very much like the tier Pioneer deck. My guess is that Explorer Phoenix will look more like Historic Phoenix, embracing the prowess plan, with cards like Sprite Dragon, Stormwing Entity, and Crackling Drake, with the end result being a deck that isn't as powerful as the Pioneer build but still fairly functional.

Speaking of Izzet decks, Izzet Control also finds itself in C tier, although its future isn't as rosy as Izzet Phoenix's. Along with losing Thing in the Ice—the most important creature in the deck—Izzet Control loses Treasure Cruise and Collective Defiance (which pairs with Narset, Parter of Veils to wheel away the opponent's hand), which I think will be too much to overcome. Considering how strong UW Control is in Pioneer (and looks to become in Explorer), it's hard for me to find a reason to play Izzet Control in Explorer with so many important pieces missing.

F Tier: Dead on Arrival

Bant Spirits fares even worse than Mono-Blue Spirits, missing Mausoleum Wanderer, Selfless Spirit, and Spell Queller, a who's who list of the best Spirits in the deck. While some sort of Collected Company deck will probably show up in Explorer, my guess is that it'll be a random good-stuff pile rather than Spirit tribal. However, there is a bit of good news for Spirits fans: if Wizards ever makes another remastered set, Shadows of Innistrad Remastered seems like it should be next in line, and all of the missing Spirits are from that block. With Selfless Spirit, Spell Queller, and Mausoleum Wanderer, Bant Spirits would have the look of a solid second-tier and possibly first-tier option in Explorer, so keep an eye on upcoming Anthologies and Remastered sets—sooner or later, a release is going to come along that will take Bant Spirit from unplayable to one of the better decks in the format. The only question is when.

As a general rule, when your deck is named after one specific card and that card doesn't exist in a format, your deck isn't going to work, and that's the situation where Jeskai Ascendancy Combo finds itself in Pioneer. The only realistic way the deck has of winning is Jeskai Ascendancy, and Jeskai Ascendancy isn't on Arena, so the deck is dead for now. Making matters even worse, even if Wizards adds Jeskai Ascendancy to Explorer through an Anthology or something, I'm not sure that it would be enough to make Ascendancy Combo work since Sylvan Caryatid and Dig Through Time are both pretty important to the game plan, and they are missing as well. While I'm sure Ascendancy Combo will make its way onto Magic Arena eventually, it might be a long wait.

Everything I just said about Ascendancy Combo also applies to Hidden Strings. The deck is missing its namesake card Hidden Strings but also a bunch of other important pieces, including Thespian's Stage, Dark Petition, Sylvan Scrying, and Pore Over the Pages, which means it might be a while until the deck gets enough pieces to function in Explorer. The good news is that Ascendancy Combo and Hidden Strings Lotus Field Combo are two of the most annoying Pioneer decks to play against, so it might actually be a positive that players won't have to deal with these archetypes immediately upon the launch of Explorer.

Wrap-Up

Adding everything together, that leaves us with something like this. Honestly, after digging into the top decks in Pioneer, my overall impression is that Wizards should be able to get most of Pioneer onto Arena in way less than "several years." We talked about nearly 20 decks today, and it would take something like 50 cards to have them all be fully playable on Arena. One well-built Pioneer Masters set could turn Explorer into Pioneer (well, at least tier Pioneer—some janky stuff would be missing) immediately, which would give players a fun format and give Wizards time to add the rest of the Pioneer-legal cards to the client at its leisure. I'm hoping that this happens soon, perhaps even this year. In the meantime, there are still plenty of interesting decks to play in Explorer, including full versions of some of the very best decks in the Pioneer format.

Anyway, that's all for today. As always, leave your thoughts, ideas, opinions, and suggestions in the comments, and you can reach me on Twitter @SaffronOlive, or at SaffronOlive@MTGGoldfish.com