Financial Review of Commander 2015
I should probably start by saying Commander 2015 is, at least in my opinion, the best Commander set that's ever been produced. The designs and flavor of the cards is off the charts. In fact, it makes me a little sad that we can't play any of these spicy legends in Modern, or even Standard. In short, I love the set, to the point where it makes me want to play Commander — a format I never play.
That said, power, flavor, and interesting design is not enough to make a card command a high price tag. This statement is especially true when you consider the Commander series isn't really known for supporting expensive cards, which is a good thing. Casual-only cards shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. So before we break down the cards from the new Commander 2015 decks, let's begin by exploring the history of the Commander series. We'll be skipping over the original Commander simply because its supply was so much lower than subsequent Commander releases. We'll focus on Commander 2013 and Commander 2014 with the goal of seeing just how many and what types of cards from these sets hold value. We will use this information to help guide our discussion of Commander 2015.
Commander 2013
There are a total of 16 cards from Commander 2013 with a value of $2 or more. Each deck has at least three of these cards, helped by the fact Commander Tower and Sol Ring are in every deck. The average number of cards worth $2 or more in a Commander 2013 deck is 4.8. Maybe the most important and interesting aspect of these cards is the reason why they maintain value.
What lessons can we learn from this data? First off, if a card is a legitimate Commander staple (i.e. one of the two hundred most played cards in the format), it can maintain a price of more than $2, but typically no more than $4. Every single Top 100 card printed (or reprinted) in Commander 2013 falls into this price range. Second, if a card is Modern or Legacy playable, it can maintain a value from $3 to $16. Reprinted Uncommons come in at the lower end and newly designed Rares like True-Name Nemesis and Toxic Deluge come in on the high end.
The four oddballs are a little harder to break down. Primal Vigor doesn't crack the Top 200 list, but it is a popular casual card. Primal Vigor provides a budget substitute for an even more popular card, Doubling Season. It also comes from a low-value deck. These factors are enough to make Primal Vigor the third most expensive card (and most expensive casual card) from Commander 2013. Thousand-Year Elixir is also a casual favorite that falls outside the Top 200, but it gets a bump from being colorless, which helps it fit into more decks. I should mention that in looking at the "most played" data, I used a weighted list which accounts for color identity issues. As a result, it's fairly difficult for a colorless card to crack the list because it is theoretically eligible to be played in any Commander deck. Propaganda and Tempt with Discovery are probably the hardest to figure out, although it is worth noting that Tempt with Discovery only recently gained enough value to make our list and Propaganda was worth more before the reprinting.
It's also worth mentioning that apart from the two Green cards, the only "new" cards from Commander 2013 that maintained any value are eternal playable. It shows what a big hurdle these new, casual-only cards have to overcome to hold any value. It's pretty much "Top 200 Casual Staple" or bust. For instance, Oloro, Ageless Ascetic is the single most popular commander in the entire game, and he's only worth a dollar nearly two years after seeing print. The same is true of Derevi, Empyrial Tactician (the ninth most played commander) and Marth, Will of the Wilds (the fifteenth most played commander).
Commander 2014
Commander 2014 has 26 cards worth $2 or more. Considering Sol Ring comes in every deck, we get an average of 6 cards per deck worth $2 in this price range. While the value is slightly more than Commander 2013, this number is skewed by the fact that each deck gets a planeswalker. Like every planeswalker ever printed, these planeswalkers have maintained value, not so much because they are great in Commander but because they are extremely popular casual cards. The breakdown is similar to Commander 2013. Legitimate Commander staples can be worth between $2 and $4, while eternal playables can go all the way to $17. It looks something like this:
Maybe the most interesting revelation in comparing Commander 2013 to Commander 2014 is just how important it is for cards to see play outside of Commander. As I mentioned a moment ago, Orolo, Ageless Ascetic is the most played commander. He's still only worth $1 because he's unplayable anywhere else, including kitchen table casual. On the other hand, Daretti, Scrap Savant is the fourth most played commander. He has a price tag of $5. Why is this? For one thing he's a planeswalker, but more importantly you can play it outside of multiplayer on kitchen tables or in Cubes.
You are probably wondering why I spent half of my Commander 2015 review talking about older editions of Commander. The answer is quite simple. We are trying to figure out what to look for in breaking down the new set. As we work our way through the five new Commander 2015 decks, here's what we'll be looking for.
- About 20 cards that will end up being worth between $2 and $4.
- A few cards that will end up being worth between $7 and $15.
- Eight or nine cards that will become legitimate Commander staples (Top 200).
- Eight or nine that will become Legacy or Modern playables.
- The rest will be oddballs done to fit in other groups. Oddballs are disproportional colorless cards (because they fit in any deck) or Green cards (for reasons I don't totally understand, Green is the most popular casual color or something).
With this in mind, let's get to the decks and cards of Commander 2015!
All Decks
We get two gimmies off the bat. Much like older editions of Commander, every Commander 2015 deck contains a copy of Sol Ring and Command Tower. My guess is that, once again, the increase in demand for these cards will outweigh the increase in supply and both will end up around $2. While it's possible they slip down to $1 over the short term, they should rebound in short order. The cards are always worth something because they are necessary for every single Commander deck you build. Sol Ring gets additional demand from casual tables and Vintage. You can count on these cards adding a few dollars of value to your Commander 2015 purchase no matter which decks you buy.
Commander 2015: Call the Spirits
Reprints
Phyrexian Arena and Lightning Greaves are the type of cards that survive a Commander reprint well. While I expect both to tick down a bit, their value should not be crushed. Lightning Greaves sees fringe Legacy play and is among the Top 50 most played cards in Commander. Phyrexian Arena, meanwhile, sees a bit of Modern play and is one of the five most played cards in the Commander format. As such, both of these cards should stick around $4, maybe slightly more for Phyrexian Arena. This value is at the upper end of cards that are heavily played in casual circles, but not true eternal staples.
Black Market and Karmic Justice are likely to suffer the opposite fate. While both have a significant price tag at the moment, neither is among the Top 200 most played cards in Commander. Neither sees any competitive play. Instead, their prices are driven by a very low supply. Cards that are expensive because their supply is low are the exact types of cards that get crushed by a reprint. Adarkar Valkyrie once pushed $10; she is currently a bulk Rare after being reprinted. While it might seem crazy to think these cards will end up under $2, it's possible, if not likely.
New Cards
I'm not sure if you picked up on this in our discussion of Commander 2013 and Commander 2014, but the biggest difference between the worthless Commander 2013 legends and the (somewhat) valuable Commander 2014 legends is that the latter are popular outside of Commander on kitchen tables. While it's unlikely Karlov of the Ghost Council and Daxos the Returned see eternal play or end up as Top 200 Commander cards, I believe they have the potential to be popular on kitchen tables. Lifegain and enchantments-matter are two popular themes. In the best case this means a price tag of between $2 and $3. Meanwhile, Grasp of Fate is likely a Top 100 Commander card. Right now Oblivion Ring is among the Top 75, and Grasp of Fate is almost strictly better in a multiplayer game. It's still worse than Oblivion Ring in a heads-up dual, so being worth much more than $2 is unlikely.
Commander 2015: Seize Control
Reprints
The reprints from Seize Control are fairly uninspiring. Reliquary Tower will always be worth more than $2 in the long run. It's already been printed into the ground, but the demand is high enough that it's currently sitting at $4. Blatant Thievery is another one of those weird old cards whose price is driven by a lack of supply. As such, it should tumble to under $2. Spinerock Knoll spent most of its life as a bulk rare before increasing recently. It will fall back towards $1. Etherium-Horn Sorcerer is interesting. It doesn't really see play anywhere, but it's never been printed in a normal set. If Seize Control ends up being one of the less popular decks in the cycle (it is comparatively lower value), there may not be all that many new copies of Etherium-Horn Sorcerer that enter the market. Since the only other printing of the card is in the low-supply Planechase 2012, it's possible prices don't drop all that much. That said, best case is still around $2.
New Cards
While far from a guarantee, Seal of the Guildpact could have an outside chance of seeing eternal play. I mean, we have seen Legacy decks spring up around things like Aluren. If there is some sort of infinite, instant-win combo that can be built around Seal of the Guildpact, it could be a fringe player in the format. Of course odds of this happening are slim, but such a massive cost reduction has some chance of being broken. If it pops up in a wacky Legacy deck it could spike hard. Otherwise it has a chance to maintain $3 to $4 on casual demand. Remember, colorless cards commonly appear in the "others" category of Commander cards that maintain value since they can be put in any deck.
At first I was excited about Mizzix's Mastery. Then I realized in a Storm deck (the most logical home for Mizzix's Mastery), it's basically a worse version of Past in Flames. Maybe it could find a role copying a single expensive spell, but I'm not sure what that would be in Legacy. Plus four-mana sorceries don't hold up well in a format with Daze and Spell Pierce. Maybe it will be broken in Commander, but this probably won't be enough to save its price. I'm expecting it to end up around $1. Mystic Confluence, on the other hand, might be able to maintain $2 based on Commander play alone. Commander players love modal spells. Draw, bounce, and counter is close enough to Cryptic Command, the 22nd most played card in Mono-Blue.
Finally, Mizzix of the Izmagus is another one of those cards that seems broken, but not quite good enough for Legacy. However, kitchen table Johnnies will love it. This popularity might be enough to keep it from crashing all the way to the $1 bulk Mythic level. Like Etherium-Horn Sorcerer, it may benefit from being in a low-value deck. Based on our research, something from Seize Control is going to be worth a few dollars. Why not a crazy, combo-centric Mythic like Mizzex of the Izmagus?
Commander 2015: Plunder the Graves
Reprints
We already talked about Lightning Greaves; it shouldn't fall much below $4. The same is doubly true of Eternal Witness, which not only sees play in Modern, but is also the third most played card in Commander. Its absolute floor, regardless of how often it's reprinted, is $2. I would be surprised if it fell that low this time around. High Market gets a bump from being a colorless land, which are always popular in Commander. If Homeward Path can maintain $4 with two Commander printings, I expect High Market to be in the same range,
Eldrazi Monument is due for a crash. It doesn't see play anywhere outside of kitchen tables and it isn't that popular in Commander either. While it's $12 now, if you look at its price chart, you'll see the slow growth typical of casual-only cards. These are cards that are hit hard by reprints. A return to $4, or with some luck $6, is in the artifact's future.
New Cards
I'm pretty sure Dread Summoning being priced at $12 is a mistake. While the card is clearly busted, we have never in the history of the Commander series had a casual-only card maintain anywhere close to $12. Of course, this statement neglects the original Commander decks, which might as well be an entirely different product because their supply was so limited. In fact, the most expensive casual-only card in the series is Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury at $5.87, and a she's a planeswalker. In a couple months, even if Dread Summons cracks the Top 200 Commander list, it's going to be in the $5 range. Even this call might be optimistic.
Bloodspore Thrinax has a chance to crack the Top 200 as well. Master Biomancer is extremely popular in Commander, but limited by the fact you need to be playing Blue and Green. Bloodspore Thrinax is basically Master Biomancer without the color restriction. Plus, people seem to like Devour. Mycoloth is still over $5 despite the fact it's been reprinted. It doesn't hurt Bloodspore Thrinax is a Green card. All in all, Bloodspore should be over $2 for the foreseeable future.
I want to mention Scourge of Nel Toth for one reason: it has a slight chance of seeing Legacy play. Since Commander 2015 doesn't have any obvious eternal staples, even a slight chance of eternal play bears mention. While a 6/6 flier, some Bridge from Below triggers, and free creatures to sacrifice suggest a home in Dredge, I'm really wondering if two mana is too much for the deck to stomach. Plus, I'm not sure the lack of a Dragon is Dredge's problem. It's not like the deck has trouble finishing the game; it's all about dodging the hate. That said, Scourge of Nel Toth is a Zombie Dragon and that's catnip for casuals.
Commander 2015: Wade into Battle
Reprints
Wade into Battle is an interesting deck. On paper, it is the highest value of all the Commander 2015 decks. But apart from Gisela, Blade of Goldnight and Urza's Incubator, all of the value is tied up in $2 and $3 cards, many of which will trend towards bulk over the coming months. Even though the deck looks high value now, it's unlikely you'll be able to sell the cards for a profit.
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight is currently $10 based on her Top 50 Commander status. She isn't going to crash to anywhere near bulk Mythic prices. However, the fact that she doesn't see any play on tournament tables means she isn't going to hold a price near $10. Being from a high-value deck doesn't help. She will be battling a bunch of other cards for expected value (EV). The most likely outcome for Gisela is a decrease to around $5.
In what is becoming a theme, Urza's Incubator is another low-supply, old card which stands to lose a lot of value with this reprint. It doesn't show up on any of the lists of most popular Commander cards and is pretty much restricted to tribal decks in the kitchen table world. It will likely drop to a couple dollars a few months from now.
New Cards
Blade of Selves is an interesting test for how expensive a Commander-only card from a Commander deck can be. It seems absolutely nuts in the format, one of the most broken and fun equipment I could ever imagine. I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up as one of the 100 (unweighted) most played cards in the format. On the other hand, it does literally zero outside of multiplayer. Based on history, I would expect this to be a $3 to $4 card. There's also a chance I'm forced to come up with a new hypothesis based on how this card's price reacts over the next year. If it ends up bulk, that would confirm Commander decks really can't support expensive Commander-only cards.
Kalemne's Captain is basically the Bane of Progress of Commander 2015. Bane of Progress, even with two years to grow, is currently sitting at $1.62. I expect Kalemne's Captain to be about $1.
Dream Pillager is another interesting case study. It's a Dragon. It has a fairly epic ability. It's mono-color. These are all positives as far as price. On the other hand, the Commander series doesn't really have a history of producing high value, high-CMC creatures. While being from Magic's most popular tribe will help, ending up in just-above-bulk Rare territory seems likely.
Commander 2015: Swell the Host
Reprints
We already talked about Eternal Witness, Reliquary Tower, and High Market. The bottom line is Reliquary Tower might fall for a while, but should rebound back to the $3 range. High Market is popular enough in Commander that it isn't going to end up a bulk rare. Eternal Witness could drop as low as $2, but will end up in the $4 range eventually. Solemn Simulacrum, likewise, is a Top 20 card in Commander, so it shouldn't fall much below its current $4 price tag.
New Cards
In honesty, none of the new cards from Swell the Host really excite me. They aren't likely to make waves in eternal formats, and it is even doubtful if any of them can break the Commander Top 200. I think Ezuri, Claw of Progress and Kaseto, Orochi Archmage could hang around $2 based on casual demand (and the lack of value in the rest of the deck). Instead of breaking down more bulk Rares, let's talk a little bit about Snakes.
Snakes are a popular creature type in casual Magic. I can't tell you how many Snake decks I've come across in purchasing collections over the years. So for me, the most exciting part of Swell the Host is the support for Snake tribal, which could lead to an uptick in demand and prices of some of the older members of the tribe.
The reason the price of several Rare Snakes from Kamigawa block could explode is supply. Even though TCGplayer isn't the entire Magic secondary market, buying out the website has become an all-too-easy way to raise prices on a card. While this doesn't happen often with new cards (supply is too high), once you go back to an old and unpopular block like Kamigawa, it doesn't take much to clean out TCGplayer and move the needle. Just for fun, let's see what TCGplayer currently has in stock for the three cards listed above.
| Card | Regular Copies NM | Price | Cost to Buy Out | Foil Copies NM | Price | Cost to Buy Out |
| Shizuko, Caller of Autumn | 92 | $0.62 | $57.96 | 5 | $4 | $20.00 |
| Seshiro, the Anointed | 54 | $1.16 | $62.64 | 0 | $4.33 | n/a |
| Sakiko, Mother of Summer | 38 | $0.76 | $38.76 | 2 | $3.50 | $7.00 |
With so few copies available, it would only take $150 for someone to clean out TCGplayer of these three cards — and only $27 to clean up the rest of the foils. Even discounting evil speculators, it only takes a handful of people deciding to build a new casual Snake tribal deck to wipe out supply. Seriously. There are less than ten play sets of Sakiko, Mother of Summer on TCGplayer. It doesn't seem unreasonable for ten people to be inspired by Swell the Host and want to build casual Snakes. So, if you are planning on buying Snakes, I'd get them soon. There may not be enough to go around at current prices.
What Deck Should You Buy?
Unlike the previous Commander series sets, Commander 2015 doesn't have have a run away, most valuable deck. Based on current prices, Wade into Battle is the most valuable, but I'm not impressed with how the value is distributed. Many of the now-expensive cards in Wade into Battle are likely to crash hard in coming months. Price-wise, I believe all five decks are on fairly equal footing. While none of them have quick flip potential, all decks will provide enough value that you should feel like you got your money's worth when you purchase one. My advice is to buy whatever decks look the most fun to you. Value-wise it's all about the same.
Closing Thoughts
- Commander cards really need to be Modern legal. As I mentioned before, Commander 2015 is likely the most flashy, most powerful, most excitingly designed supplemental product printed in years. But I don't play Commander. Since these cards are only legal in Legacy and Vintage, I don't have any place to play all these flashy cards. Looking over the deck lists, how many of these cards do you think would be bad for Modern? While I might end up writing an entire article on this topic in the future, my answer would be not many. Sure, with older Commander decks you can argue that True-Name Nemesis is too powerful for Modern. Perhaps Toxic Deluge might be too powerful as well. But 99% of the cards printed in the history of Commander would be perfectly safe and fun to play with in Modern. Plus, making Commander products Modern-legal would provide an avenue for getting exiting new cards into the format without first going though Standard, a mechanism that is very much needed for the health of the Modern format.
- No Eternal Cards. This is the first Commander product that doesn't have a single obvious Legacy card. The original had Scavenging Ooze, Commander 2013 had Toxic Deluge and True-Name Nemesis, and Commander 2014 had Containment Priest. For Commander 2015, we're looking at a ton of cards that are clearly not good enough for Legacy. What's the point of having a product that is only legal in Legacy if you are not going to design any cards that have a chance in the format? This is another reason I strongly believe Commander decks should be Modern legal. Sure, you might have to tone down a tiny percentage of cards, but you are creating a ton of demand for the format. Instead of relying only on casual demand, making the cards Modern legal and including a few chase reprints and some exciting new cards is a sure way to sell a ton of Commander decks.
- The Design is Amazing. One thing that impresses me to no end is how Wizards managed to make a product that has a ton of cards that look to be super powerful in Commander, but aren't broken in other formats. This ability gives me a ton of faith in the future of Magic design in general. In theory it means Wizards can print cards that are very good in Modern, but won't break Standard. We've seen a few examples of this, like Deathrite Shaman, but they are few and far between.
- The Reprints Selection is Great. As I mentioned multiple times in the article, many of the most expensive cards in Commander 2015 are older, single print cards that are just now getting their first reprint. That's great. We can argue for days about the cost of Magic, but one thing I think most people will agree on is that cards like Black Market, Karmic Justice, Blantant Thievery, and Eldrazi Monument don't need to be expensive. Personally, I really dislike unplayable, non-Reserved List cards being expensive. If a card is a staple in a competitive format, a high price tag is understandable. If a card is on the reserved list, being expensive makes sense. I can even stomach Top 200 Commander cards costing a pretty penny. What drives me crazy is when unplayable, casual only cards cost an arm and a leg simply because the game has grown so much over the years that there is not enough supply to go around. Commander 2015 takes a step towards fixing this problem with its choice of reprints. While this sampling isn't the most exciting ever, the fact that casual players can get their Eldrazi Monuments for their kitchen tables without paying fetchland prices is good for the game.
- My Favorite Commander 2015 Card:
Aka The Reliquary Rock
I love drawing cards. If you watch my videos, you'll know this is one of my biggest weaknesses. Given the choice between casting a Treasure Cruise and killing my opponent, I pick Treasure Cruise far more often than I should. However, there are two things that hold me back from drawing even more cards. First, the pesky "discard to handsize" rule. Second, most card draw spells are expensive. Thought Vessel fixes both of these problems. Not only does it ramp me into Sphinx's Revelation, but it makes sure I never have to discard the cards I draw at the end of my turn. While it might seem like an odd choice for a product filled with flashy and powerful cards, in my world Thought Vessel is the best of the bunch.
Conclusion
Anyway, that's all for today. As always leave your thoughts, ideas, and opinions in the comments. You can reach me on Twitter (or MTGO) @SaffronOlive.
