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Limited Analysis: Draft M15 x3
Commentary
Summary
- Games Analyzed
- 38,295
- Last Updated
- 2014-08-08
Game Length
- Average Turns
- 9.45351
- Average Lands Played
- 6.98006
Play or Draw?
Win % on the Play
48.4%
Win % on the Draw
51.8%
Mulligans
| Mulligan to | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win % Average | 36.51% | 26.29% | 14.91% | 0.00% |
| Win % on the Play | 33.97% | 21.98% | 10.77% | 0.00% |
| Win % on the Draw | 39.16% | 31.90% | 20.41% | 0.00% |
| Games | 13,340 | 966 | 114 | 16 |
Win Percentage by Color
52.3%
49.7%
49.2%
49.9%
52.0%
Top Cards
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hornet Queen | 810 | 78.00% | |
| 2 | In Garruk's Wake | 158 | 75.00% | |
| 3 | Stormtide Leviathan | 476 | 74.00% | |
| 4 | Garruk, Apex Predator | 389 | 74.00% | |
| 5 | Soul of Theros | 452 | 72.00% |
Top Commons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanctified Charge | 3216 | 65.00% | |
| 2 | Triplicate Spirits | 6836 | 63.00% | |
| 3 | Sungrace Pegasus | 7877 | 58.00% | |
| 4 | Covenant of Blood | 4476 | 58.00% | |
| 5 | Raise the Alarm | 7274 | 57.00% |
Top Uncommons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feral Incarnation | 866 | 69.00% | |
| 2 | Overwhelm | 249 | 68.00% | |
| 3 | Seraph of the Masses | 2061 | 65.00% | |
| 4 | Nightfire Giant | 2142 | 64.00% | |
| 5 | Illusory Angel | 1366 | 64.00% |
Archetypes
| Colors | Win % | Field % | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54.87% | 1.48% | 1,130 | |
| 54.30% | 9.22% | 7,037 | |
| 54.26% | 0.75% | 575 | |
| 53.66% | 0.90% | 684 | |
| 53.64% | 1.82% | 1,389 | |
| 53.33% | 10.76% | 8,206 | |
| 53.13% | 0.65% | 495 | |
| 52.81% | 10.00% | 7,633 | |
| 52.12% | 1.05% | 802 | |
| 51.89% | 8.44% | 6,439 | |
| 51.77% | 9.09% | 6,933 | |
| 51.16% | 7.60% | 5,802 | |
| 50.08% | 6.26% | 4,778 | |
| 49.75% | 0.78% | 597 | |
| 49.26% | 8.32% | 6,352 | |
| 48.92% | 0.73% | 558 | |
| 48.86% | 0.98% | 747 | |
| 47.94% | 0.98% | 751 | |
| 46.99% | 7.91% | 6,038 | |
| 46.08% | 4.82% | 3,674 | |
| 42.88% | 2.19% | 1,672 | |
| 39.89% | 1.63% | 1,246 | |
| 30.27% | 1.07% | 816 | |
| 29.53% | 1.37% | 1,043 | |
| 27.27% | 1.18% | 902 |
* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive ( ) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.
No huge surprises. White and Red are the strongest colors by a significant margin despite being heavily drafted.
The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Looks like less junk mythics and rares than other recent formats. Somewhere in between a Prince and Pauper format. Note the inclusion of Win% on the play is only for the first game of each match.
Interesting that only the white paragon is actually "good" (makes perfect sense with the token strategy). The other are mostly just "fine". Not sure what data WotC was looking at for PTM15, but it doesnt match my data, nor actual experience.
Ensoul Artifact is at 61% and looks like the real deal as Reid Duke showed us recently.
Ornithopter is at 46.8% and this obviously includes all the times it was Ensouled. Conclusion: it's still as bad as well we all expect it to be.
The more interesting data is in the cards that aren't good:
These aren't "unplayable" but it says to me that the format as a whole is slow enough that tempo probably isnt great. WU has a reasonable Win% so it looks like a pure skies archetype is a better call here.
Encrust 44.2% is the highest played "bad" card (i.e. most overrated card in the set). It probably has the same problem it had last time: you have to let them hit you first.
All in all it seems M15 has less pure "junkers" than other sets.