Weekly Update (Mar 29): Getting Started on Magic Online in 2020

This week, the biggest winner in the Magic market seems to be coronavirus. Between both Modern and Pioneer, the card to post the biggest%age gain was Notion Thief at 9% with the $1.40 rare moving to about $1.60, which isn't especially notable. What is notable is how coronavirus has more or less paralyzed the Magic market, with local game stores and big vendors putting operations on pause in response to the virus. Even Wizards is feeling the impact, with Ikoria's paper releasing being delayed a month outside of Asia-Pacific. During a typical week we have at least some (and often several cards) that double (or more) in price. This week, there really aren't winners to talk about. 

If there's good news, it's that we haven't seen a massive decline in paper card prices. At least not yet. While staples in formats like Pioneer and Modern are trending down, it's hard to figure out how much of this is directly related to the coronavirus and how much of it is tied to seasonal trends. While having the Pioneer Players Tour finals canceled certainly doesn't help prices of Pioneer staples, are declining prices evidence of people selling their collections or just a general lack of demand since there isn't a place for most people to play paper Magic at the moment? At this point, it's too early to really say, but it will be worth tracking over coming weeks. Sharper or more sustained declines could suggest that a meaningful number of people are trying to sell off their collections.

On the other hand, the digital market is booming. After declining sharply this past fall with the announcement of Pioneer, the Magic Online Modern Index has climbed from a low of 871 tix to 1,156 tix (putting the value of Modern staples on Magic Online at their highest point since 2018 when Arena officially released into wide beta). Perhaps the cleanest example comes from the manabase, where fetchlands are up across the board this week on Magic Online, with shocklands and fastlands also showing solid gains. While people are pretty clearly not buying many paper cards at the moment, and some may even be selling their collections, people are pretty clearly buying into older formats on Magic Online, perhaps as a way to get their eternal fix and pass the time while stuck at home. If you're interested in checking out Magic Online, I made a tutorial this week that will help you get started.

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