Weekly Update (Mar 20): Arlinn Kord, Werewolf Planeswalker and Friends
by
mtggoldfish // Mar 21, 2016
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Budget Magic: $87 (37 tix) Modern Death Cloud
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What's better than destroying all of our opponent's creatures? Killing all their lands and emptying their hand with Death Cloud!Read more
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Finance Update w/ Saffron Olive
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All in all, this week was fairly quiet in the realm of finance as the community focused on Shadows over Innistrad spoilers. As such, instead of talking about the price movement of individual cards, let's take this opportunity to talk about Shadows over Innistrad from a meta perspective.
First off, the mythics from Shadows over Innistrad are priced amazingly highly. Right now, the average price of a Mythic is over $13, meaning the mythics alone would add nearly $60 in expected value (EV) to a box. This feels very unsustainable. Over the past few years, Fate Reforged had the highest average Mythic value during presales at almost $10, but that set was devoid of value at lower rarities, which is not the case with Shadows over Innistrad.
Speaking of the rares from Shadows over Innistrad, they currently have an average value of $2.82, which is also significantly above average, especially for a set without a rare dual lands cycle (so far at least; it's possible a partial cycle gets spoiled this week). At this price, the rares would add another $89 to the value of the box, which would put the EV at over $150 as things currently stand.
Of course this will change as the rest of the set is spoiled, we still have a handful of mythics and nearly half the rares yet to be revealed. So either we are going to be getting a lot of low-value cards over the rest of spoiler season, or the value of Shadows over Innistrad is going to be off the charts when the set releases. Of course, I'll update everyone with a full EV article after the entire set is spoiled, but for now this means two thing:
- Buying boxes to open them early is looking like a really good plan. Even if the rest of the spoilers are average or below average, you should be able to open more than enough value in cards to cover the price of your box (if you sell immediately).
- Prices from Shadows over Innistrad will drop faster and harder than most other sets once the set is released. This means that preordering singles is very likely a losing proposition. On average, the price of rares and mythics from the set will have to drop around 50% to get the EV under the price of a box.
Sphinx's Revelation #2: Oath of the Draftwatch
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Sleepers and Busts for the Shadows over Innistrad Standard
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Can you beat this Oath of the Gatewatch board state? Read more
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With Shadows Over Innistrad looming over the horizon, let's talk about some sleepers and busts for the new Standard. Read more
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Pennywise Pauper: Temur Tron
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Budget(ish) Commander: Archangel Avacyn ($80)
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Jake returns to the land of Urza to show off one of the most popular decks in Pauper Read more
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New Avacyn is one of the most deep and interesting commanders we've gotten in a while. Finally, we have a Boros Control leader! Read more
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Against the Odds: Battle of Wits
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What are the odds of winning in Legacy with a deck built around Battle of Wits? Let's see!Read more
Vintage 101: Eternal Shadows over Innistrad
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Rough Drafts: Triple Ravnica
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How do the Shadows over Innistrad spoilers stack up in Vintage? Read more
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After nearly two months of toiling through sub-par formats, our journey through Modern flashbacks hits a high point with Triple Ravnica! Read more
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Commander Clash 12: Old School '99
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Only cards that were printed up to 1999 are allowed!Read more
Ahead of the Curve: Colorless Mana Sources in OGW Draft
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Podcast 060: Arlinn Kord, Nahiri, SOI Spoilers
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When to draft colorless mana sources in Oath of the Gatewatch draft. Read more
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The crew discusses Arlinn Kord, Nahiri, and other SOI Spoilers. Read more
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