This week our biggest finance new is the impending release of Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. The expected value calculation is up on the prices page (minus collector boosters which will be coming soon once we add in the Commander Precon cards that were just previewed) and the biggest takeaway is that the set is currently massively overpriced with the expected value of a draft booster box coming in at $208 and a set booster box at $305. For unlimited supply Standard sets, the expected value always drops down near or below the cost of a box (for example, the current EV of Strixhaven is $96 for a draft booster and $89 for a set booster), which means cards from Adventures in the Forgotten Realms need to lose roughly half of their value (on average) over the next month or so. As such, rather than splurging on $42 copies of Tiamat or $20 Circle of Dreams Druid during presales, a bit of patience will save you a lot of money. Once the set officially releases in a week or two and people start cracking boxes, prices are going to drop and drop a lot.
Meanwhile Modern is still adjusting to the presence of Modern Horizons 2 cards. Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer has been one of the biggest influences of late, with Shizo, Death's Storehouse jumping 72% to $55 this week as a way to make sure the Monkey can keep attacking even through a board full of blockers. On the other hand, last week's hot Ragavan land - Shinka, the Bloodsoaked Keep - is trending back down, losing 16% this week to fall back under $40 after briefly peaking at $65. This is normal when a card is bought out. As copies are relisted, vendors are incentivized to undercut their competitors' prices to sell their copies, which causes prices to fall. It seems likely that Shinka, the Bloodsoaked Keep will stabilize somewhere around $30; a far cry from $65, but still way more than its $10 price tag from a couple of weeks ago. Shizo, Death's Storehouse will likely follow the same pattern. If you need a copy now, keep an eye out for the Mystery Booster foil printing, which can be found for somewhere between $25 and $30, even as the non-foil Champions of Kamigawa printing is currently $50+.
Finally, we just got the full spoiler for Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Commander precons, which are likely to have a big impact on prices as players assemble decks around the new legends and upgrade their precons. In just the past day Uril, the Miststalker has ticked up 7% to $20 thanks to a ton of new support for voltron decks. Over the coming weeks, keep an eye on Illusions (thanks to Minn, Wily Illusionist), things with attack triggers (for Wulfgar of Icewind Dale), and various equipment and auras (along with their support cards) for Galea, Kindler of Hope. These commanders are among the most unique from the release and have potential to cause some price spikes for weird, forgotten, older cards that happen to work with their abilities.
