Vintage 101: The Vintage Metagame Pre Eternal Weekend
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at where Vintage is at prior to Eternal Weekend! In addition to that we've got a bunch of Challenges to look at, so buckle up!
Without further ado, let's dive right in.
Vintage as Whole Pre-Eternal Weekend
Eternal Weekend NA is fast approaching, so it's a good time to take a look and see where Vintage is at! For this data I'm referring to the data sets collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord and published by Justin Gennari. I made a copy of their aggregate sheet specifically focused on the time period of the Saga/Bauble restriction up until 11/20. That document can be found here.
Let's start by checking out some graphical data!
A lot is going on here with this format, so let's break down some of the big takeaways.
Dredge is incredibly popular, but very medium on Win Rate
Far and away the most popular deck of the format right now is Dredge. It's the deck with the highest individual subarchetype metagame share overall, but the story it tells behind the scenes is that it's overall win rate is actually just kind of medium at best. With a 48.2% non-mirror win rate, Dredge is still a reasonable enough choice to play an event with, but players are shown that they are able to react to the deck and beat it with copious amounts of graveyard hate.
The downside of this being the most popular deck is that every other deck in the format needs to be packing multiple forms of graveyard hate or be a deck that can beat it without caring too much in order be adequately prepared for Dredge.
One other thing to note is that since Dredge is so popular as the de facto Bazaar deck at the moment, the other Bazaar strategies in AggroVine and CounterVine are functionally sort of nonexistent at the moment, although CounterVine does have its fans, its win rate is even worse at a 47% non-mirror win rate.
Lurrus Combined is a Huge Part of the Format
Lurrus decks come in a few different flavors now, from Control variants to DRS "midrange" piles and also combo piles. Currently the overall macro archetype of Lurrus is a whopping 25.5% of the format at the moment. A good majority of those decks come in the form of the Control variants making up around 20% roughly, which also means a lot of Psychic Frog and a lot of Orcish Bowmasters floating about the format.
Lurrus lends itself well to a lot of different strategies, but out of those the primary ones with good results have been the Control variants (Dimir Lurrus having a 55.2% non-mirror win rate and all) and Breach variants (Lurrus Breach with a 53.1% non-mirror win rate). Lurrus just isn't good, it's very good, and something the format long term may need to contend with for a long time unless Wizards chooses to do the thing yet again and ban it (but I really doubt this is a thing that ever happens again).
Other decks exist, but are fighting against mostly Lurrus
Decks like Initiative, Doomsday, and Oath are all still spinning about the stratosphere that is Vintage. These are decks that are relatively always going to stick around Vintage despite how good or not they may be. Oath especially a super popular deck in paper events it always seems, and despite it looking like it's less than stellar (49.8% non-mirror win rate) it's still better than Dredge is at the moment.
Initiative also appears to be in a reasonable position at the moment at a 51.1% non-mirror win rate. This deck has had a lot of ups and downs, having previously won one Eternal Weekend and has continued to be a firm presence in the metagame. The Saga/Bauble restriction appears to have been a good thing for Initiative.
Doomsday as well is in a good position, and is a great deck if you understand the intricacies of playing the deck. The deck has some pretty extreme knowledge and learning curve to it, but it's doing well at a 50.9% non-mirror win rate.
Jewel Shops is still really strong
Jewel is continually a deck that seems like it's really really really good in Vintage. The Saga restriction didn't really hurt this deck like one thought it might have, instead tightening up its manabase and deck construction to the point. It's an incredibly powerful deck currently sitting at 53.3% non-mirror win rate, which is good because its regular w/ mirror win rate is 52.9%. Jewel is able to be very good against other decks in the format, showcasing that it is one of the most Vintage of Vintage decks.
Jewel does have some downsides that it is prone to falling prey to things like Null Rod and Collector Ouphe, but cards like Sink into Stupor and Argentum Masticore are great ways to beat those cards.
The Health of the Format Pre-EW?
I think the bigger question to ask here is just how healthy Vintage is before EW. I think the format has its ups and downs right now, and while some games are fun, not much really truly changed from the Saga/Bauble restrictions in regards to the big decks of the format (Lurrus and Jewel). I don't particularly view this as healthy, but Vintage can be fun even when it's unhealthy so that things might stick for a while.
Lurrus in of itself is a strategy that feels ultimately pretty problematic, but I also don't think Wizards would ever go back to banning the card in Vintage. I'm going to be really curious what happens this weekend at Eternal Weekend, but I do think there will be something worth changing in Vintage at some point.
Vintage Challenge 32 11/14
The first Challenge of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 33 players thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dimir Lurrus was the most popular deck here and it had a slightly above average win rate. Oath did really well here, as did Esper Lurrus and Lurrus Breach. Jewel Shops did poorly in this event, and while Dredge had some good finishes, its overall win rate was less than 50%.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Oath | 1st | sebastianpozzo |
| Esper Lurrus | 2nd | jeunejulio |
| Lurrus Breach | 3rd | Amiracle |
| Painter | 4th | adm29 |
| Dimir Lurrus | 5th | Viatt |
| Dredge | 6th | RogeDeckWins |
| Dredge | 7th | Munchlax446 |
| Breach | 8th | BERNASTORRES |
Fairly interesting Top 8. Some Breach, some Lurrus, some Dredge, but Oath won it in the end.
Some interesting choices here honestly. Abrupt Decay seems like a pretty reasonable main deck inclusion since it deals with a lot of permanents in the current format (Lurrus primarily) uncounterably. Oath isn't always the best Tinker deck, but when it is good in that regards it's really good.
In Second Place we had Esper Lurrus.
Containment Priest seems like a rather strong card with a lot of the Dredge floating about. Stern Scolding is also a really interesting card since it counters both Frog and Bowmasters.
Vintage Challenge 32 11/15
The second Challenge of the week was the Friday event. This event had 40 players thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge was super popular, but despite one Top 8 it's win rate was dragged down below 50%. Breach looked great, as did Initiative. Oath underperformed slightly and Doomsday did not look good at all.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus Vault Key | 1st | IamActuallyLvl1 |
| BUG | 2nd | Montolio |
| Initiative | 3rd | The_Gerogerigegege |
| Esper Lurrus | 4th | _Shatun_ |
| Breach | 5th | FarmerLGG |
| Initiative | 6th | bolov0 |
| Dredge | 7th | Dogeminer02 |
| Breach | 8th | TrueHero |
4/8 of the Top is Breach and Initiative, and we round out the rest with some one offs. At the end of the event it was Lurrus Vault Key by our good friend Justin Gennari that won.
Okay this is certainly a neat take on the Vault Key/PO style deck. Vault Key was rapidly gaining a lot of steam near the tail end of the Saga era pre-restriction and then the deck kind of disappeared for a while after the restriction, most people thinking it was probably dead. Oswald Fiddlebender seems like a strong way to bring the deck back, alongside PO.
In Second Place we had BUG with another good friend of ours Montolio.
I am absolutely digging the Life from the Loam in this list. Being able to Loam back Strip Mine / Wasteland and keep up the pressure on the opponent seems solid.
Vintage Challenge 32 11/16
The third Challenge of the week was the Saturday event. This event had 48 players thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most popular deck of this event, and it had a really strong win rate overall. Dredge, Jewel, and Dimir Lurrus all looked good as well. Doomsday and Vault Key did poorly.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Initiative | 1st | almostomniscient |
| Jewel Shops | 2nd | oosunq |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | O_danielakos |
| Dredge | 4th | matttothec |
| Dredge | 5th | RogeDeckWins |
| Jewel Shops | 6th | Johnni |
| Dimir Lurrus | 7th | Mogged |
| Dimir Lurrus | 8th | B-Carp |
Lot of Lurrus and Dredge here, but the winner of the event was Initiative.
This is a good looking build of this deck. Anointed Peacekeeper seems quite strong right now with things like Bazaar, but also Lurrus, and Chancellor of the Annex is really good right now.
In Second Place we had Jewel Shops.
Jewel hasn't changed a bunch in some time and I don't think it will change too much going forward. Into the Flood Maw is great in this deck for unconditional bounce of a thing (because Jewel is never going to care about the 1/1), and Argentum Masticore is one heck of a card
Vintage Challenge 32 11/17
The final Challenge of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 44 players thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the datasheet here.
Jewel Shops was very popular but its win rate was not so good despite a Top 8 finish. Breach and Oath looked great, as did Esper Lurrus.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dredge | 1st | Munchlax446 |
| Esper Lurrus | 2nd | ecobaronen |
| Oath | 3rd | HazuhiroNakamura |
| Breach | 4th | John1111 |
| Initiative | 5th | Bezerra_da_Silva |
| Jewel Shops | 6th | Gerschi |
| Initiative | 7th | Nanovo |
| BUG | 8th | yoshiwata |
Pretty varied Top 8 here. At the end of the event it was Dredge that won.
This is a very straightforward list for how Dredge is built right now. Having multiple ways of interacting with opponent's spells is a strong way for Dredge to be at the moment, and it shows in how popular the deck is. It's not always performing 100% well, but it's still a great deck.
In Second Place we had Esper Lurrus.
This list is slotting in the Timetwister tech, which can be absolutely insane if you have a Bowmasters in play. Twister your opponent and get seven +1/+1 counters on your Orc Army is very huge.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has some videos for us.
- Montolio has a video on Aggro Shops. Check it out here.
- BoshNRoll has a video on Dimir Lurrus. Check it out here.
- FiretruckModo has a video on Squee! Check it out here.
- Shir Kahn has a video on Turbo Vault. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
CURIE STIFLENOUGHT.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
