Vintage 101: March 2026 Check-In
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at Vintage in the first two months of 2026 and get an idea of where we are. In addition, we've got some Challenge data from last week to look through.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
March 2026 Vintage Check-In
It's been a minute since we did a larger look at Vintage overall, with an eye going back to when Tezzeret first appeared in the format (7/29/2025), given that was a more major event than other sets in 2025. This is utilizing the data provided by the MTGO Vintage Discord, and I always make a copy of the sheet so that I can manipulate the dates to show the data period I want to cover. You can find that sheet here.
Let's start by looking at the graphical data for this period of time, which includes a littler over 6.1k entries.
Initiative is the most played deck since Tezzeret's printing, but overall since then the actual performance for the deck isn't great at around 49.8% non-mirror. I think a majority of this is related to the fact that Initiative over time has settled even more within the Vintage metagame and more players are figuring out how to beat the deck. Another part of this is the fact that the deck itself had only really one major iteration on it this last year with Clarion Conqueror out of Tarkir, and a lot of the deck's construction hasn't really shifted that much to meet where the metagame has gone. I do think there is a possibility to improve how this deck looks and operates within the metagame, but it will require a bit of work to get there.
However, I think I am also reasonably okay with Initiative's place in the format, as it seems like a fine deck to have as a "non-Shops aggro" deck that exists.
Dimir Lurrus and Lurrus decks in general filtered a lot into the top number of decks, with Lurrus Breach having one of the better non-mirror win rates at 55%. Dimir Lurrus was the most played of these at 739 copies and it had a 54% non-mirror win rate, which is pretty strong. I think the Lurrus decks, while there are a lot of them, are all rather varied and different enough that they seem to be treating the format fairly well. Having a solid variation of both fair and combo decks does give this major archetype a lot of play to it, and makes the gameplay a little more interesting to figure out what is happening.
Dredge also remains very popular, and this comes at no surprise because it's always been a deck that's been popular throughout Vintage for the "Dredge" effect, where it can do well if the players in the event just forget Dredge exists. However, it does seem like people keep remembering Dredge exists. At 545 copies in the metagame, it has around a 45.8% non-mirror win rate, and that's not super great. I do think Dredge isn't having the best time, and a lot of it is just that people keep packing hate for it, and keep putting pressure on it. Also, there's just certain decks that have a really solid Dredge matchup from start to finish.
The Shops decks continue to posit good results across the board, with many of them having just minor good win rates like Raker at 52.5% non-mirror with 539 copies in the metagame. Shops does remain one of the firm pillars of the Vintage format, and cards like Tezzeret, Cruel Captain continue to be one of the big reasons for that.
I think it's fine that Shops occupies a reasonable part of the metagame. It certainly has gone through periods where it has been overpowering and even some where it felt nearly nonexistent, and this current space for the Shops builds feels incredibly reasonable and fair.
Overall I think Vintage is a rather healthy metagame and it continues to remain healthy as time has gone on. Lorwyn Eclipsed did give the format a new fun tool in the form of Hexing Squelcher, one that's been rather slow to fully adopt but when I have seen it has looked incredibly powerful.
Weekly MTGO Recap
Last week I asked for some feedback on how we do event coverage on this article, with the intent of working more towards an equilibrium that isn't just a decklist dump. I am still seeking this ongoing feedback at the form located here.
In the meantime, I am going to start with some weekly MTGO recaps that exist thanks to the assistance of our good friend Justin Gennari, who posts these recaps weekly via his social media. You can find all of Justin's links here. This is one thing that I think will be rather interesting to keep track of how the metagame is responding week to week. For now we will also be covering each individual challenge event as we have before, unless at some point feedback shifts and people desire to see this in a different fashion.
Let's start with the raw data and graphs from Justin's weekly data set.
For the past week, the most played deck of the event was Lurrus PO at 30 copies (close to 20% of the weekly metagame), but its overall non-mirror win rate was around 50.8%, which seems pretty reasonable. Next in line was Raker Shops at 21 copies and a 52.4% non-mirror win rate. This was followed by Jewel at 11 copies and a 57.4% non-mirror win rate. Finally we had Initiative in the Top 4 decks of the week also at 11 copies and a 52.4% non-mirror win rate.
Lurrus in general accounted for 58 copies out of the total 151 entries in the data set so close to 40% of the entire week was a Lurrus deck of some type. Again this doesn't really account for the fact that many of the Lurrus decks are individually different strategies, just that you would have faced a Lurrus deck almost 40% of the time during this past week's events.
It does seem like things are still fine in a weekly capacity, but getting to see the trends from week to week is what will help this data become more useful over time.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/26/2026
The first Challenge event of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 39 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Lurrus PO was the most played deck of the event, but its win rate was atrocious. Raker Shops and Jewel Shops both did very well, as did Esper Lurrus (with only two pilots). Sphere Shops also performed very poorly.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Jewel Shops | 1st | Tsubasa_Cat |
| Esper Lurrus | 2nd | Ark4n |
| Lurrus Breach | 3rd | desolutionist |
| Doomsday | 4th | Asa_Akira |
| Lurrus Doomsday | 5th | Xenowan |
| Raker Shops | 6th | musasabi |
| Oath | 7th | Wesal |
| Oath | 8th | etoustar |
Oath and Doomsday were big parts of this Top 8. At the end of the event though it was Jewel Shops that won.
Pretty straightforward list, but I do like the restricted copy of Lodestone Golem in the main here. Also Unable to Scream in the sideboard.
In Second Place we had Esper Lurrus.
This is pretty clean. Not much to really say, I think things flip back and forth between Dimir and Esper a lot but that's kind of a good thing to have in the format.
Outside of the Top 8 we had Sneak and Show.
Straight main deck Hexing Squelcher in four copies is crazy cool. This is a really fun looking list. I wonder how many decks in Vintage are even ready for Sneak Attack as a card.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/27/2026
The second Challenge event of the week was the Friday event. This event had 36 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most played deck here, but its win rate was really awful. Raker and Esper Lurrus both did very well.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Esper Lurrus | 1st | Montolio |
| Sphere Shops | 2nd | _Shatun_ |
| Oath | 3rd | Ecoscuro |
| Raker Shops | 4th | crK |
| Lurrus Breach | 5th | desolutionist |
| Scam | 6th | jben |
| Jewel Shops | 7th | Tsubasa_Cat |
| Esper Lurrus | 8th | DrPP |
Fair bit of Lurrus here, and at the end of the event it was Esper Lurrus that won.
This is definitely an Esper Lurrus list! I could find some quip about it, but it is very stock looking. (Realistically this is one of the major reasons I'm curious about whether to continue covering every event)
In Second Place we had Sphere Shops.
Getting a Bojuka Bog with Golos, Tireless Pilgrim seems kind of sweet.
Also in this Top 8 we had Scam.
This is a pretty interesting list. I enjoy that an alternate mode of playing an MDFC land is just casting Boggart Trawler and exiling a graveyard. Very amusing stuff.
Vintage Challenge 32 2/28/2026
The third Challenge event of the week was the Saturday event. This event had 44 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Lurrus PO was the most played deck of the event and it had a really good win rate. Doomsday, Dredge, and Countervine all did very well. Esper Lurrus did poorly in this event.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Initiative | 1st | sandydogmtg |
| PO | 2nd | Billbuscus |
| Lurrus PO | 3rd | AFX |
| Lurrus PO | 4th | duke12 |
| Doomsday | 5th | Chocolate_Branco |
| Lurrus PO | 6th | xfile |
| Esper Lurrus | 7th | Ark4n |
| Countervine | 8th | xDingusKhan |
Lot of Lurrus PO, but the end of the event was decided by Initiative winning.
Okay, kind of weird, having a main deck Karn, the Great Creator here. I am curious how much it came up that you got Karn and was able to use it to great effect. I still don't like Void Mirror.
In Second Place, we had non Lurrus PO.
I think without Lurrus around, this is what PO would realistically look like. The Tinker package with Citadel is pretty good, and Tezzeret + Karn are solid too. Also, some sideboard copies of Hexing Squelcher make it really difficult for opponents to interact with spells.
At the bottom of the Top 8 we had Countervine.
Okay okay, yeah, this is very straightforward in terms of raw deck construction. I like some of the sideboard options with stuff like Cradle allowing you to pay for Tabernacle, and Karakas to deal with annoying legendaries like Lavinia.
Vintage Challenge 32 3/1/2026
The final Challenge event of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 32 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Lurrus PO was the most played deck, and it had a solid-looking win rate. Initiative did very well here, as did Jewel Shops.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Raker Shops | 1st | Terminus0 |
| Initiative | 2nd | sokos13 |
| Oath | 3rd | Wesal |
| Lurrus Cats | 4th | -yursus- |
| Lurrus PO | 5th | MyPotatoes |
| Lurrus PO | 6th | reojund |
| Esper Lurrus | 7th | lordoflifegain |
| Initiative | 8th | Cachorrowo |
Fair bit of Lurrus in this Top 8. At the end of the event, it was Raker Shops that won.
Pretty solid-looking list here. I think this deck has really firmed up into much more of a true stock list and hasn't had a ton of innovation because the raw core of it is just so strong.
In Second Place, we had Initiative.
Light of Day is such a truly incredible sideboard card. I can't even imagine how good this is against a lot of decks in the format right now.
Also in this Top 8, we had Lurrus Cats.
Okay realistically it's Lurrus Energy, to be truthfully honest. The Ocelot Pride/Guide of Souls core is one of those things you can just build entirely around in so many ways. It is crazy how quickly it gets out of hand too.
Around the Web
- Only one video this week from Justin Gennari, and that's Tezz/PO. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Azorius Lurrus with Wan Shi Tong is amusing.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always, you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition, you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
