Vintage 101: January 2026 Vintage Check-In
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at the current Vintage metagame in January 2026. In addition we've got some Challenge events to look at from last week.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage in January 2026 Metagame
It's been a minute since we last looked at how Vintage is going metagame-wise (since November), so I figured this was a good time to take a look and see how Vintage is shaping up. We're leaning on the MTGO Vintage Discord's data collection efforts here, with the latest aggregate data sheet linked here. This is looking at the time period when Tezzeret, Cruel Captain was released to now.
Let's start by looking at the graphical data.
Lurrus Decks
From a sheer metagame perspective, a little over 35% of the overall metagame is centered around some form of a Lurrus of the Dream-Den deck. As I've pointed out in the past, this is just recording all of the decks that have Lurrus as a companion and doesn't really showcase how diverse the Lurrus decks actually are. Lurrus decks are split up amongst several fair variants (Dimir, Esper, DRS), and several combo variants (PO, Breach, Doomsday). These decks all have fairly distinct game plans, and the fair variants seek to control the early game and force the opponent into playing to their level.
One of the things to keep in mind with this is that the statistic of counting the number of Lurrus decks simply means that you're more than likely to run into Lurrus at least 35% of the time in the overall metagame, but that's not super guaranteed in any given event. Yes, Lurrus decks generally tend to be well played, but so are decks like Initiative and Dredge.
Of the current Lurrus decks, the one with the most metagame share is Dimir Lurus, and it seems to be the one with the best overall win rate too. That win rate is certainly on an interesting cusp because it's right at around 55% non-mirror, a figure cited in the past as being problematic by Wizards. However, I do think that Dimir being a fair deck is a good thing for the format, and I've seen people trying to exploit Lurrus fair decks and their removal suites by going bigger with cards like Murktide Regent and friends.
Of the Lurrus combo decks, Lurrus Breach seems to be the one with the best win rate overall, boasting a 55.2% non-mirror win rate, but as we'll see from last week's events, Lurrus PO is doing extremely well, so the balance of power shifts pretty quickly between the various Lurrus builds.
Initiative
Of individual deck archetypes, Initiative is by far the most popular in the format at a 16.5% metagame share. However, the deck's win rate continues to be right in line at roughly 50.6% non-mirror. This deck has functionally taken the place of Shops for the non-blue deck that is powerful and popular for a lot of people.
Initiative continues to be just a good deck in Vintage that isn't incredibly overpowering. People have generally figured out how to beat the deck now, and it's settled into Vintage well. The months since Tezzeret really haven't shifted that aspect of the deck, and I think it's a good place for the format to be to have a good non-blue deck.
Dredge and Bazaar Variants
Dredge is definitely still very popular, but since July of last year it and the other Bazaar variants have really dropped off in terms of raw win rate. Nearly all variants of Bazaar decks sit roughly at below 50% win rate with Dredge having the best of these at 45.8% non-mirror.
Dredge's popularity largely leans on the fact that it's a deck that doesn't play Power, and it generally plays to an axis that is functionally not-Magic. While it has a bunch of pitch spells and stuff, it can also just win a game without casting any spells, which is unique and interesting to people.
I think the largest aspect as to why Bazaar decks and Dredge are not doing as well is mainly because of how popular Lurrus is. Lurrus affords decks the ability to play repeatable graveyard hate, giving those decks a way to continually interact with Dredge as a deck. Combine that with how much the rest of the format needs to respect Dredge as an archetype, and you've got a perfect mixture for Dredge just being kind of okay. It's still there, but it's not insanely powerful nor is it breaking the format in two. The other Bazaar variants seemingly feel nonexistent at this point, too.
Shops Decks - Raker, Jewel, & Golos
While Initiative is the format's prevailing non-blue deck of choice, this doesn't mean that Shops is dead on arrival; it's just a lot different than it used to be a long time ago. Shops decks have coalesced between three primary builds over the past two years. Two of those builds (Sphere and Jewel) existed relatively as they are today, while Raker Shops is within the past year's existence from the release of Modern Horizons 3 printing Glaring Fleshraker and then sets like Edge of Eternities bringing in cards like Tezzeret, Cruel Captain.
Overall, these decks also seem to be fairly in line with Vintage as a format. Their win rates aren't excessively egregious, sitting right around the 50-53% mark non-mirror. They seem to be pretty reasonable decks and neither of the three is overpowering the format. Raker is the most popular, but Jewel also has quite a following, and it gets to be one of the three to be able to play cards like Force of Will.
Oath of Druids
Oath is a deck that generally stands the test of Vintage time, as even when it's not considered good it's always had some form of "fun factor" to it. There's just something about Oathing into a big creature and winning the game. The overall game plan for the deck looks far different today than it used to as Atraxa, Grand Unifier has become the staple of the deck over things like Griselbrand. In addition, the deck simply desires to play more of them because of how back-breaking its trigger can be, and in turn gets to adopt cards like Show and Tell and Stock Up at the same time.
Oath at the moment seems pretty comfortable at a 53.7% non-mirror win rate. I don't think there's any real issues with this deck, and it seems like just like any deck in Vintage, it has its good events and bad events.
Overall... Healthy!
I think Vintage continues to seem exceedingly healthy at the moment. Yes, Lurrus makes up a lot of the metagame, but players are proving themselves to be quite inventive and try to come up with ways around that, and the format has a bunch of decks that all seemingly can have good weekends on MTGO at any given moment.
The only awkward notion is that nothing in Bazaar world outside of Dredge seems to be any good, when there used to be much more diversity in that macro-archetype overall. I do think largely that's the consequence of a number of factors like Lurrus' metagame share combined with the fact that many decks just seem much better positioned than a different Bazaar based strategy than how powerful Dredge can be at times.
Still, I am pretty happy overall with Vintage right now. I am looking forward to keeping an eye on the format going forward, but I don't expect any real major shakeups to throw the balance of this format off-kilter.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/15/2026
The first Challenge event of the week was the Thursday event. This event had 52 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Both Initiative and Dimir Lurrus were heavily played here, but both decks had win rates below 40%. Dredge looked great, as did Sphere Shops and Lurrus Doomsday.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dredge | 1st | peposhi |
| Lurrus PO | 2nd | 4FunNoWin |
| Sphere Shops | 3rd | _Shatun_ |
| Lurrus Doomsday | 4th | GoblinElder |
| Dredge | 5th | MeninooNey |
| Lurrus Breach | 6th | Kenzaburo |
| Sphere Shops | 7th | Harvey_Specter |
| Lurrus PO | 8th | Wesal |
The Lurrus decks here are all combo decks. At the end of the event, it was Dredge that won.
Pretty solid-looking list here. It's super interesting to see the split of Hollow One between main deck and sideboard, though. Gives you some more room to have full sets of Forces and Noxious Revival.
In Second Place, we had Lurrus PO.
Very straightforward list. I love how good Thundertrap Trainer is in these decks. It's such a powerful spell that digs through your library.
Further down the Top 8, we had Lurrus Doomsday.
Playing Lurrus with the Doomsday setup does mean you miss out on cards like Street Wraith, but you make up for it with really powerful control/tempo effects like Psychic Frog.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/16/2026
The second Challenge event of the week was the Friday event. This event had 35 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge was the most played deck of the event, but despite a Top 8 appearance, its win rate was less than 50%. Dimir Lurrus and Lurrus PO both did very well, as did Sphere Shops.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dimir Lurrus | 1st | kasa |
| Lurrus PO | 2nd | _Shikamaru_ |
| Dredge | 3rd | xDingusKhan |
| Oath | 4th | jibeta |
| Dimir Murktide | 5th | blub_blub |
| Lurrus Doomsday | 6th | Tsubasa_Cat |
| Dimir Lurrus | 7th | Frejat |
| Initiative | 8th | VitorCarvalho01 |
This is a pretty solid Top 8. At the end of the event it was Dimir Lurrus that won.
Straightforward looking list here. Not much to really speak of, even Wan Shi Tong, Librarian is slowly becoming a solid flex spot in these lists.
In Second Place we had Lurrus PO.
Very similar list to the other one that did well prior. I will point out Test of Talents in the sideboard here. Pretty sweet sideboard tech against anything that relies on a namesake spell like Doomsday.
Also in this Top 8 we had Oath.
Ooh. Commandeer in the sideboard is some sweet stuff. I absolutely adore that card.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/17/2026
The third Challenge event of the week was the Saturday event. This event had 55 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Lurrus PO was the most played deck of the event and its win rate was insanely good. Both Initiative and Tinker both performed poorly. Dimir Lurrus and Esper Lurrus looked good.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus PO | 1st | 2plus2isfive |
| Lurrus PO | 2nd | Miharu_Fuyumiya |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | i_b_TRUE |
| Raker Shops | 4th | B-Carp |
| Lurrus PO | 5th | _Chamytinho_ |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | AlpInco |
| Jewel Shops | 7th | Tunaktunak |
| Lurrus PO | 8th | Sommertroll |
Lot of Lurrus here. At the end of the event it was Lurrus PO vs Lurrus PO.
Azure Beastbinder is a super sweet little card in the sideboard here. Being able to turn off something for a turn is really cool.
Let's look at the Second Place list.
This is fairly stock and basically the same list that did well the other two events. Not much to say about this one.
Also in this Top 8 we had Raker Shops.
Looks like a solid Raker list here. No frills, but there doesn't need to be.
Vintage Challenge 32 1/18/2026
The final Challenge event of the week was the Sunday event. This event had 36 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Both Initiative and Dimir Lurrus were the most played decks, and both had some solid win rates. Oath and Lurrus PO also both looked good here.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus PO | 1st | Wesal |
| Initiative | 2nd | choutin |
| Oath | 3rd | musasabi |
| Dimir Lurrus | 4th | Milkshake_ |
| Initiative | 5th | unagieel |
| Breach | 6th | CrazyDiamond513 |
| Initiative | 7th | sokos13 |
| Dimir Lurrus | 8th | s8shock |
Fair bit of Initiative here. At the end of the event though it was Lurrus PO that won.
Fairly similar list to the others that have done well this past week. Multiple Consign to Memory is quite good. It's just a really solid card overall.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
Oh I really like this list a lot. I have never been a big fan of Void Mirror in these decks, and I think March of Otherworldly Light is just a really powerful card overall, so I am happy to see it in greater numbers.
Further down the Top 8 we had Jeskai Breach (no Lurrus).
Valley Floodcaller is one heck of a card. Pretty sweet stuff here. Hilariously it makes Thundertrap Trainer functionally a Prowess creature.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has some things for us:
- FiretruckModo has some Old Man Tinker. Check it out here.
- Kindamtg is playing some BIRDS. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
Red Prison!
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always, you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition, you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
