Vintage 101: Is Vintage Fixed?
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at the first major event of the Post-Restriction Vintage era of Saga/Bauble being restricted cards. This event was a Vintage Qualifier, so it's definitely a big deal. In addition to that we've got some Challenges to look at.
Since this article drops on Thursdays typically, the Thursday this will drop on (9/5) another Stream night for me, and I will be streaming Vintage! I've got a fun spicy one lined up for this stream. Be sure to check it out.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage Qualifier 8/31
So we're now a week in to the post-Restriction era of both Saga and Bauble being restricted, and within that first week we had a major event on MTGO. That event was a Vintage Qualifier event that required Qualification Points (QPs) to enter. This event had 105 players according to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
After discussing the event itself, we're going to be digging into the first week's aggregate data, so that we can get an understanding of where Vintage is at the moment and whether or not we fixed Vintage with this restriction.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
At the top of the pack of popularity, and in a solid win rate space, was Esper Lurrus Control. This deck was formerly known as Lurrus Saga, but it is now a slightly different deck thanks to the rebrand as it gets to ditch some cards like the Time Vault combo. Initiative also looked very goood here, as did Jewel Shops. Dredge was super popular and while over the weekend it had a strong showing in Challenges, its win rate here was demolished. Doomsday and Oath both had reasonable win rates.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Jewel Shops | 1st | HazuhiroNakamura |
| Initiative | 2nd | _J0SE_ |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 3rd | 416FrowningTable |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 4th | Miharu_Fuyumiya |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 5th | RespectTheCat |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 6th | otakkun |
| PO | 7th | Fnoop |
| Initiative | 8th | Jositoshekel |
Four out of the Top 8 belonged to Esper Lurrus Control here. At the end of the event it was Jewel Shops that won though.
Jewel definitely took a hit to its backup game plans with the restriction of Saga, but it didn't seem to hurt it too much. The Ring and Jewel both seem very strong cards still and the deck has four copies of Sink into Stupor which is an absolutely insane card.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
Very interesting looking list. Only one Bauble to me is very nice, as I didn't care for the card in the list. Having a strong opening turn is key to this deck, and having that early turn one sequencing seems great.
Also in this Top 8 we had Esper Lurrus Control.
Tamiyo, Dauthi Voidwalker, and Psychic Frog are the bread and butter of these lists. As we will see over this weekend's events, Frog, Bowmasters, and Tamiyo all seem to be really strong in these shells, with some changes in other threats like Voidwalker, Lavinia, etc. We've also seen some lists eschew Saga entirely for better mana. The return of Yixlid Jailer here is nice.
Overall Thoughts - Is Vintage Fixed?
Looking at this data and then also looking at the early aggregate data provided by Justin Gennari's teams, there are roughly 293 entries from 8/26 to now. Of that, the most played deck has been Esper Lurrus Cotnrol at close to 20% of the metagame.
This is not unexpected, and even last week we noted that this was probably the outcome that would most likely happen. Lurrus is such a strong card, and we got so many new cards that work well with it, most notably Psychic Frog, that it's very difficult to really warrant not playing the card in a fair shell. My expectation here is that we will continue to see Dimir/Esper Lurrus as a strong player going forward, whether they play the restricted copy of Saga or not.
The next most popular deck is Dredge at a little over 17% of the metagame. Dredge is interesting because I think it is the Bazaar deck that stands the most to benefit from because the Bauble restriction is helpful enough to being able to resolve their free countermagic, but also Dredge was already one of the more dominant Bazaar strategies prior to the restriction and it seems like the best of the three major ones still. Of course, its current win rate over this time period is still just below 50% so I don't expect it to take over the format. It's still just as easy to answer as it ever was.
The big boost here in third place was Initiative at 15% of the metagame. In the absence of Sphere Shops losing one of its bigger threat pieces in Saga, Initiative seems like a great deck to fill that void. New MDFC card Witch Enchanter has really proven itself quite well here. Not only is Initiative quite popular, but its win rate seems great at a solid 56%.
The fourth most played deck is Doomsday at around 7.5% of the metagame. Doomsday definitely was a deck I think many people were worried about going into this post restriction world, and while I think Doomsday is very good, I don't think it will improve so much that it's absolutely insane. It's currently sitting at around a 47% win rate overall, and while it's got a few finishes in this post-Saga world, it's not doing things that it wasn't doing before and it's still very difficult to pilot well which leads to very few people really investing time into mastering it.
Oath is the fifth most played deck at the moment at around 7.2% of the metagame. It's also another deck with a positive win rate, just above 50%. I think Oath seems like it's really poised to make a comeback, but could be knocked back down as time goes on and things adjust. Oath seems like a great deck to take advantage of the metagame developing though, because Atraxa is just so very powerful.
I think not much has really changed with the format overall, honestly. It doesn't seem worse or better at the moment, just slightly shifted and different. I'm still very concerned we could come out of this metagame in a worse place than before, but sofar it doesn't really seem like things are "fixed", it just seems... different. Again, I'm not sure that's better, but I'm definitely willing to give it the benefit of the doubt and see where things go from here. I may do another Round Table at some point and see what people are wanting out of the format now that Saga/Bauble are restricted. That might be a lot of fun!
Vintage Challenge 32 8/29
The first Challenge event of the week to talk about was the Thursday event. This event had 57 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge was the most popular deck of the event, and its win rate looked pretty good. Esper Lurrus also looked great as did Initiative. BUG, Doomsday, and Oath all had sub-50% win rates.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Esper Lurrus Control | 1st | _Joseba_ |
| Dredge | 2nd | Pellejo |
| Scam | 3rd | s8shock |
| Dredge | 4th | Lord_Beerus |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 5th | MisplacedGinger |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 6th | Patxi |
| Sphere Shops | 7th | Awepp |
| Oath | 8th | Jumba |
Very interesting Top 8 here. At the end of the event, it was Esper Lurrus that won.
The reduction of Saga entirely allows this deck as discussed to play more colored sources, so extending into white to play Swords and Lavinia seems very strong.
In Second Place we had Dredge.
This is a really strong-looking build. Grief seems very strong still in this list, and having Bridge/Therapy is nice.
Also in this Top 8 we had Scam.
Frog, Troll, and Atraxa? What is this, Legacy?! Oh right. It kind of almost is, except Grief is legal here.
Vintage Challenge 32 8/30
The second Challenge event of the week to talk about was the Friday event. This event had 43 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge continued to be the most popular deck, but it's win rate was sub 50%. Esper Lurrus looked great, as did Scam.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Esper Lurrus Control | 1st | bless_von |
| Esper Lurrus Control | 2nd | albertoSD |
| Initiative | 3rd | morenoHARDCORE |
| Dredge | 4th | Lord_Beerus |
| Doomsday | 5th | IamActuallyLvl1 |
| Scam | 6th | s063 |
| Dredge | 7th | Munchlax446 |
| Dimir Lurrus Control | 8th | Mogged |
Still a nice bit of Lurrus here, in fact the finals was Esper Lurrus vs Esper Lurrus. Let's look at thr first.
The primary white splash here is really for Swords. We also get Yawgmoth's Will which is really sweet.
In Second Place we had another Esper Lurrus.
Frog and Lavinia plus Bowmasters seems like a strong place to be in Vintage right now, especially with Lurrus to back it up.
Also in this Top 8 we had Doomsday.
Solid looking Doomsday list here. This seems like a nice place to be for this deck.
Vintage Challenge 32 8/31
The third Challenge event of the week to talk about was the Saturday event. This event had 42 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge and Esper Lurrus were both very popular, with Dredge looking really good. Initiative also looked pretty good.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dredge | 1st | Lord_Beerus |
| Dredge | 2nd | Wizard_2002 |
| 4C Lurrus Control | 3rd | unluckymonkey |
| Dredge | 4th | ThiGuyAgain365164 |
| Initiative | 5th | almostomniscient |
| Initiative | 6th | caio402 |
| Dredge | 7th | _Joseba_ |
| Initiative | 8th | Feski713 |
4/8 of the Top 8 here is just Dredge. In fact it was the finals of the event.
Pretty much nearly the exact same list overall here. Dredge feels like it's in a strong place with Bauble restricted, much more so than other Bazaar strategies in my opinion.
Also in this Top 8 we had 4C Lurrus Control.
Questing Druid and Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student both seem pretty insane here. This looks like a super fun list for sure.
Vintage Challenge 32 9/1
The final Challenge event of the week to talk about was the Sunday event. This event had 47 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find all of the decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Initiative was the most popular deck and it's win rate was reasonable. Esper Lurrus was also popular but its win rate was less than 50%. PO looked good as did BUG.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| BUG | 1st | Sprouts |
| Initiative | 2nd | Munchlax446 |
| Oath | 3rd | MadMaxErnst |
| Lurrus DRS | 4th | Threpio |
| 8Cast | 5th | oosunq |
| Dimir Lurrus Control | 6th | Mogged |
| Initiative | 7th | burrarun |
| Initiative | 8th | chanel-santini |
Lot of Initiative here, but the end of the event was decided by BUG winning.
Frog seems very good here with Leovold to back up preventing other Frogs from doing things. Archive Trap being a nod to Doomsday is great.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
Initiative not having to play four Bauble honestly for me, is a good thing, and I feel like it makes the deck even better, as I never really liked four Bauble in the list. Wrath of the Skies is a sweet sideboard card.
Also in this Top 8 we had Oath.
Four copies of The One Ring in Oath is kind of wild. This is a wildly interesting Oath list overall. I'm digging it for sure.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari has some great stuff for us as always.
- FiretruckModo has a video on AggroVine. Check it out here.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
