The Expected Value of Theros: Beyond Death

It's prerelease weekend for Theros: Beyond Death, which means it's time to take a deep dive into the financial side of the set and break down its expected value. The basic idea of an expected-value breakdown is to figure out, on average, how much value you'll open from a booster box of Theros: Beyond Death. Apart from the possibility of opening random alt-border cards, Theros: Beyond Death is pretty straightforward, with the normal 15 mythics and 53 rares. While the set is lacking a high-value land cycle, which is often a big deal for the set's expected value, at first glance, it seems to make up for this with some exciting high-value mythics. Anyway, let's take a look at the methodology we'll use for calculating the set's expected value and then jump into the numbers!

Methodology Notes

1. Commons (except in very rare cases) are considered to be bulk, which I value at $5.00 per thousand. This means that an entire booster box worth of commons will add $1.80 to the expected value of the box.
2. Most uncommons will also end up in the bulk pile, although chase uncommons (generally uncommons worth more than $0.25) that can be individually sold or traded away will be calculated separately.
3. Foils get their own section. Foil mythics (typically the most valuable foils in a set) are incredibly rare, and the odds of getting one in any individual box are quite low. That said, the possibility of opening one does increase the overall expected value by a few dollars.
4. These prices won't be good for long. Remember: the idea is to determine if Theros: Beyond Death is worth opening on release weekend. If you buy a box six weeks from now, don't blame me when these prices are wrong because I can tell you right now that they will be wrong—and likely very wrong. Remember that the EV is a snapshot based on current prices and not a prediction of where prices will be in the future.
5. As I mentioned before, it is possible to open alt-frame / alt-art cards in a normal booster box, but since we don't know the distribution of these cards, we can't really bake them into the expected-value calculation. These cards do make a box of Theros: Beyond Death slightly more valuable than our expected-value calculation will suggest, but we have no way of knowing how much value these cards will add until we get distribution numbers (if we ever do).
6. Another reminder: you don't actually make a profit until you sell the card. So, just cracking boxes on release weekend isn't enough; you need to take the next step and actually trade away the cards, list them on eBay or TCGplayer, or sell them to a buylist.
7. The prices were calculated on Friday. If something spiked in the last couple of days, it won't be reflected in the expected-value calculation.
8. Finally, be aware of variance. These numbers will be accurate if you open enough packs. But, like most aspects of Magic, variance can have a huge impact in small samples. In theory (although not in practice), a booster box could contain zero mythics and all bulk rares, or it could contain a complete set of foil mythics. The more packs you crack, the more accurate the EV will become because you will smooth out these outliers.

Theros: Beyond Death Mythics

$ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00

The mythics of Theros: Beyond Death offer solid value, with the average mythic value of $8.69 being a full dollar above that of Throne of Eldraine. Even better, there's only a single bulk rare in the set, in Kiora Bests the Sea God, while every other mythic in the set is worth at least $4.50 and six of the 15 mythics come in at $8 or above. If there is bad news, it's that the median mythic value is only $6.51, which means there is a reasonable amount of variance in the set. 

In terms of opening a box, as long as you can hit at least one of Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, Heliod, Sun-Crowned, or Nyxbloom Ancient, you should do fine in terms of total mythic value, almost regardless of the rest of the mythics you happen to open. On the other hand, if you whiff on the three top-end mythics, the mythic slot will be undervalued, which means you'll have to run well with rares to make up for the bad mythics.

Theros: Beyond Death Rares

$ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00

While the mythics from Theros: Beyond Death are solid, the rares are historically bad. With an average value of just $0.91 and a total expected value added of just $28.88, the rares from Theros: Beyond Death are worth a massive 30% less than the rares of Throne of Eldraine. The reason for these abysmal numbers? The set has the highest bulk-rare rate we've seen in a long, long time. 

Only 13 rares from the set are worth $1.50 or more, the amount that gets them listed individually on our chart. Considering that there are 53 rares in Theros: Beyond Death, this means that a massive 75% of the rares from the set fall into the bulk or semi-bulk categories. For Throne of Eldraine, the rate was 62%, which is still bad, but Theros: Beyond Death easily tops it. 

This means a couple of important things. First, the median rare value from Theros: Beyond Death is bulk. As a result, it's very possible that you can open an entire booster box and end up with little or no real value from the slot. Second, we mentioned in our discussion about mythics that if you whiff on the top three mythics, it will be hard to get good value from the slot, which would make opening good rares more important. Unfortunately, giving the expected value of the rare slot, it is going to be difficult (if not impossible) to open enough good rares to help make up for lacking mythics, in terms of value.

This leaves us in a position where Theros: Beyond Death, regardless of the final expected-value number, will likely be an extremely high-variance set. You'll do fine you happen to run well and hit some of the high-end mythics or chase rares, but the typical box of Theros: Beyond Death will very likely contain less value than the expected value suggests. 

Theros: Beyond Death—Uncommons / Commons / Bulk

$ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00

The uncommons and commons from Theros: Beyond Death are just as bad as the rares. The only two that are even worth mentioning are Field of Ruin and Destiny Spinner, and neither of these cards is really a chase uncommon in the way of Fatal Push, with Field of Ruin leading the way at just $0.38. 

$ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00

That said, there is a big of good news: right now, the basic lands from Theros: Beyond Death are selling for around $0.50 each. While I'm not sure how easy it will be to actually sell or trade them away at that price, even if we use a more conservative valuation of $0.25 per land, since 36 are guaranteed in each box, this adds $9 to the expected value. While it is possible that the value of the basics will dip as the set is opened, it doesn't seem that unlikely that the Theros: Beyond Death basics will stick at $0.50 or more in the long-term, considering that the Battle for Zendikar lands are in that price range and are arguably less unique and desirable than the Theros: Beyond Death basics. While the $9 of guaranteed value isn't going to make up for lackluster rares and uncommons, it will help to ease the pain a bit. If you open a bulk rare, at least you're getting a valuable (as far as basics go) land for your troubles.

Theros: Beyond Death—Foils

In general, the foils from Theros: Beyond Death look very much the same price-wise, with one big exception: foil basic lands actually have a decent amount of value at around $5 each, which helps to up the total value that the foil slot adds to a box. Whether or not this will remain true in the long-term remains to be seen since we know that Theros: Beyond Death Collector Boosters will have two of the foil Nyx lands per back, which might increase supply enough that the prices will drop. But for the immediate future, opening about one foil basic a box adds a nice little boost to the expected value that the set can desperately use, thanks to the lacking rare and uncommon value.

Theros: Beyond Death—EV Summary

Surprisingly, after we calculate everything up, the expected value of Theros: Beyond Death is actually slightly higher than that of Throne of Eldraine, coming in at $104.54 per box. This solid EV despite the lackluster rare and uncommon slots is mostly due to the basic lands, which add about $14 to the value of a box (including foils and non-foils). 

Of course, this number comes with a bit of an asterisk since it doesn't include the alternate-border cards that occasionally show up in regular booster packs. Since we don't really know their distribution (although they seem to show up at a rate of less than one per box, perhaps similarly to foil mythics), the easiest thing to do is to exclude them from our expected-value calculation. This plan makes even more sense when you consider how much variance there is within the alt-border cards themselves (with some pushing $100, especially in foil, while others are only worth a couple of dollars). Treat the possibility of opening an expensive alt-border Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath or Heliod, Sun-Crowned like a free lottery ticket you get as a reward for opening a box.

Another consideration is the buy-a-box promo. Athreos, Shroud-Veiled is currently selling for around $15 on eBay, which means if you can purchase a box early from your local game store, you will get a nice chunk of guaranteed added value, which will bump the box's expected value up into the $120 range, which actually seems fairly appealing.

That said, the biggest issue with Theros: Beyond Death from an expected-value perspective is the variance. While the total expected value looks fine and even good with the buy-a-box promo included, the low median values of the mythics, rares, and uncommons mean that most boxes will likely yield less value than the expected value suggests. Over time, you'll open about $105 in value per box, but that's only helpful if you're someone who is opening a ton of boxes. If you're the average player who is opening a single box, only getting back $70 or $80 of value will probably be the norm, which makes opening a box of Theros: Beyond Death a major risk from a financial perspective.

Conclusion

Anyway, that's all for today. Are you planning to open a box of Theros: Beyond Death? Let me know in the comments! As always, leave your thoughts, ideas, opinions, and suggestions, and you can reach me on Twitter @SaffronOlive or at SaffronOlive@MTGGoldfish.com.