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Expected Numbers of Specific Cards in Kaladesh Limited


Kaladesh has 264 cards: 101 Commons, 80 Uncommons, 53 Rares, 15 Mythics, and 15 basic lands. Those numbers are the same as Shadows over Innistrad without the double-faced cards. There are another 10 cards that only appear in Planeswalker decks, but they don't appear in booster packs and don't affect Limited formats, so we can ignore them for the purposes of this analysis. Also, Kaladesh Inventions and foil cards are sufficiently rare that they have relatively little impact on Limited, so we won't consider them for this analysis either. Each booster pack contains ten Commons, three Uncommons, and one Rare or Mythic. As usual, one out of every eight packs contains a Mythic instead of a Rare. Let's use this information to determine how likely we are to see a specific card at a given rarity when opening booster packs, bundles, and booster boxes.

  Contents Common Uncommon Rare Mythic
Booster Pack 10 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 7/8 Rare, 1/8 Mythic 0.10 0.04 0.017 0.008
Bundle 10 booster packs 1.00 0.375 0.165 0.08
Booster box 36 booster packs 3.56 1.35 0.59 0.30

You're about 2.6 times as likely to see a copy of any given Common as you are to see a copy of any given Uncommon, 2.3 times as likely to see a copy of any given Uncommon as you are to see a copy of any given Rare, and twice as likely to see a copy of any given Rare as you are to see a copy of any given Mythic.

Now let's apply this information, along with the numbers of packs used for each format, to determine how likely we are to encounter copies of specific cards at each rarity in various Limited environments. I will use this information in subsequent articles to determine how viable various draft archetypes are, how strong some cards are in draft, and whether certain situational spells are playable maindeck in sealed.

Draft

An eight-person Kaladesh draft uses a total of 24 packs and will, on average, contain 2.4 copies of a given Common, 0.9 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given Rare, and 0.2 copies of a given Mythic.

Sealed

Individual sealed uses six packs of Kaladesh, so each player has access to a quarter as many copies of any given card as in an eight-person draft. A sealed pool will, on average, contain 0.6 copies of a given Common, 0.23 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.10 copies of a given Rare, and 0.05 copies of a given Mythic.

Team Sealed

Three-person team sealed uses twelve packs of Kaladesh, so each player has access to half as many copies of any given card as in an eight-person draft. A team sealed pool will, on average, contain 1.2 copies of a given Common, 0.45 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.20 copies of a given Rare, and 0.10 copies of a given Mythic.

Two-Headed Giant

Two-Headed Giant sealed uses eight packs of Kaladesh, so each player has access to third as many copies of any given card as in an eight-person draft. A Two-Headed Giant sealed pool will, on average, contain 0.8 copies of a given Common, 0.30 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.13 copies of a given Rare, and 0.07 copies of a given Mythic.


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