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Expected Numbers of Specific Cards in Aether Revolt Limited


 

Aether Revolt has 184 cards (not including basic lands), the same number as other recent small sets. There are 70 Commons, 60 Uncommons, 42 Rares, and 12 Mythics.

Each booster pack contains ten Commons, three Uncommons, and one Rare or Mythic. One out of about every six packs contains a foil card in place of a Common, and one out of about every 144 packs contains an Invention, but this has relatively little impact on Limited formats, so we won't consider them in our analysis.

Given those numbers, here are the chances of seeing a specific card at any given rarity in an Aether Revolt booster pack, bundle, or booster box.

Product Contents Common Uncommon Rare Mythic
Booster pack 8 7/8 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 7/8 Rare, 1/8 Mythic 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.01
Bundle 10 booster packs 1.43 0.50 0.21 0.10
Booster box 36 booster packs 5.14 1.80 0.75 0.375

This means you're about 2.9 times as likely to see a copy of any given Common as you are to see a copy of any given Uncommon, 2.4 times as likely to see a copy of any given Uncommon as you are to see a copy of any given Rare, and twice as likely to see a copy of any given Rare as you are to see a copy of any given Mythic.

I'd previously computed similar numbers for Kaladesh and am including these here for reference since we will use them to determine how likely we are to see cards from both sets in different Limited formats. Note that Kaladesh has more cards than Aether Revolt, so you're less likely to see a specific card at any given rarity.

Product Contents Common Uncommon Rare Mythic
Booster pack 8 7/8 Commons, 3 Uncommons, 7/8 Rare, 1/8 Mythic 0.10 0.04 0.017 0.008
Bundle 10 booster packs 1.00 0.375 0.165 0.08
Booster box 36 booster packs 3.56 1.35 0.59 0.30

Now let's apply this information, along with the pack distributions listed in the Magic Tournament Rules, to determine how likely we are to encounter copies of specific cards at each rarity in various Limited formats. We can use this information to determine how likely we are to be able to draft the cards needed for an archetype, or how likely we are to face a particular card or group of cards in sealed formats.

Draft

Since we're drafting two packs of Aether Revolt and one pack of Kaladesh, an eight-person draft will, on average, contain the following numbers of copies of cards at each rarity:

  • Aether Revolt: 2.29 copies of a given Common, 0.80 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.33 copies of a given Rare, and 0.17 copies of a given Mythic.
  • Kaladesh: 0.79 copies of a given Common, 0.30 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.13 copies of a given Rare, and 0.07 copies of a given Mythic.

This means you're about 2.9 times as likely to see a given Aether Revolt Common as you are to see a given Kaladesh Common, 2.7 times as likely to see a given Aether Revolt Uncommon as you are to see a given Kaladesh Uncommon, and about 2.5 times as likely to see a given Aether Revolt Rare or Mythic as you are to see a given Kaladesh Rare or Mythic.

Because Aether Revolt has fewer cards, and because we're drafting with more packs of it, you're about as likely to see a specific Kaladesh Common as you are to see a specific Aether Revolt Uncommon, about 10% less likely to see a specific Kaladesh Uncommon as you are to see a specific Aether Revolt Rare, and about 21% less likely to see a specific Kaladesh Rare as you are to see a specific Aether Revolt Mythic.

Sealed and Two-Headed Giant Draft

Individual sealed and Two-Headed Giant draft both use four packs of Aether Revolt and two packs of Kaladesh, so cards from the two sets will occur in the same relative proportions as in a regular draft, although a player will only have access to a quarter as many copies of any given card. A sealed or Two-Headed Giant draft pool will, on average, contain the following number of copies of cards at each rarity:

  • Aether Revolt: 0.57 copies of a given Common, 0.20 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.08 copies of a given Rare, and 0.04 copies of a given Mythic.
  • Kaladesh: 0.20 copies of a given Common, 0.08 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.03 copies of a given Rare, and 0.02 copies of a given Mythic.

Team Sealed

Three-person team sealed uses eight packs of Aether Revolt and four packs of Kaladesh, so cards from the two sets will also occur in the same relative proportions as in draft, although a player will only have access to half as many copies of any given card. A team sealed pool will, on average, contain the following number of copies of cards at each rarity:

  • Aether Revolt: 1.14 copies of a given Common, 0.40 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.17 copies of a given Rare, and 0.08 copies of a given Mythic.
  • Kaladesh: 0.40 copies of a given Common, 0.15 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.07 copies of a given Rare, and 0.03 copies of a given Mythic.

Two-Headed Giant Sealed

Two-Headed Giant sealed uses six packs of Aether Revolt and two packs of Kaladesh, which is a different ratio than the other Limited formats. A Two-Headed Giant sealed pool will, on average, contain the following numbers of copies of cards at each rarity:

  • Aether Revolt: 0.86 copies of a given Common, 0.30 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.13 copies of a given Rare, and 0.06 copies of a given Mythic.
  • Kaladesh: 0.20 copies of a given Common, 0.08 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.03 copies of a given Rare, and 0.02 copies of a given Mythic.

This means that you're roughly four times as likely to see a given Aether Revolt Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Mythic as you are to see a given Kaladesh Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Mythic. You're about 34% less likely to see a specific Kaladesh Common than a specific Aether Revolt Uncommon, about 40% less likely to see a specific Kaladesh Uncommon than a specific Aether Revolt Rare, and 47% less likely to see a specific Kaladesh Rare than a specific Aether Revolt Mythic.


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