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Limited Analysis: Draft Fate Reforged / Khans of Tarkir
Summary
- Games Analyzed
- 39,579
- Last Updated
- 2015-02-10
Game Length
- Average Turns
- 9.6
- Average Lands Played
- 7.2
Play or Draw?
Win % on the Play
49.8%
Win % on the Draw
50.2%
Mulligans
| Mulligan to | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win % Average | 36.50% | 23.90% | 8.30% | 2.30% |
| Win % on the Play | 34.00% | 18.10% | 4.80% | 0.00% |
| Win % on the Draw | 39.20% | 30.60% | 12.80% | 0.00% |
| Games | 11,667 | 2,130 | 290 | 43 |
Win Percentage by Color
51.6%
50.2%
51.5%
50.7%
50.7%
Top Cards
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armament Corps | 1519 | 72.50% | |
| 2 | Brutal Hordechief | 467 | 70.30% | |
| 3 | Unmorph Hooded Hydra | 159 | 69.80% | |
| 4 | Citadel Siege | 839 | 67.70% | |
| 5 | Wingmate Roc | 354 | 67.60% |
Top Commons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harsh Sustenance | 3263 | 63.70% | |
| 2 | Barrage of Boulders | 1035 | 63.30% | |
| 3 | Trumpet Blast | 1369 | 63.30% | |
| 4 | Unmorph Snowhorn Rider | 964 | 63.20% | |
| 5 | Rush of Battle | 1950 | 62.60% |
Top Uncommons
| Card | Cost | Games | Likely Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armament Corps | 1519 | 72.50% | |
| 2 | Ride Down | 1086 | 66.80% | |
| 3 | Pyrotechnics | 1140 | 64.00% | |
| 4 | Roar of Challenge | 569 | 63.80% | |
| 5 | Dragonrage | 109 | 63.80% |
Archetypes
| Colors | Win % | Field % | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55.10% | 13.10% | 10,360 | |
| 54.10% | 13.10% | 10,343 | |
| 53.70% | 2.90% | 2,329 | |
| 53.50% | 2.50% | 1,983 | |
| 53.30% | 4.30% | 3,432 | |
| 52.80% | 0.50% | 371 | |
| 52.60% | 11.80% | 9,303 | |
| 51.60% | 8.70% | 6,868 | |
| 51.30% | 2.20% | 1,758 | |
| 51.10% | 9.90% | 7,836 | |
| 50.90% | 2.30% | 1,796 | |
| 48.40% | 2.20% | 1,743 | |
| 46.90% | 2.90% | 2,270 | |
| 46.90% | 1.00% | 827 | |
| 46.80% | 3.50% | 2,761 | |
| 45.70% | 1.00% | 819 | |
| 43.80% | 3.30% | 2,618 | |
| 43.70% | 2.40% | 1,877 | |
| 43.30% | 0.60% | 443 | |
| 42.80% | 1.50% | 1,186 | |
| 42.60% | 2.20% | 1,734 | |
| 41.60% | 1.60% | 1,248 | |
| 41.10% | 0.60% | 438 | |
| 40.30% | 1.30% | 1,037 | |
| 39.60% | 1.70% | 1,309 | |
| 36.10% | 1.90% | 1,467 | |
| 22.50% | 0.40% | 324 | |
| 18.10% | 0.20% | 155 | |
| 13.10% | 0.20% | 176 | |
| 10.70% | 0.20% | 159 | |
| 7.10% | 0.20% | 184 |
* This is derived from replay data of drafts. This has the limitation of only seeing cards in play (you cannot see cards in hand in replays). This means there is a bias for expensive impactful cards. For example, Boulderfall is a very expensive ( ) and impactful card. When you do play it, you will probably win the game (as evidenced by the high win percentage). However, we cannot see all the games where it was stranded in your hand and it cost you the game. Thus the data is a bit biased towards expensive, impactful cards.
This data was collected by parsing Magic Online release drafts and seeing what cards were played. The usual disclaimer on card Win% for sweepers, overrun effects and other conditional effects. Note Win% on the Play/Draw is calculated with only the first game of each match.