Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad: By the Numbers

Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad is in the books, and it will go down as one of the best, most diverse Pro Tours in recent memory. Congratulations to Steve Rubin for taking home the prize with GW Tokens, one of many exciting new decks at the event!

The conclusion of a Pro Tour means one important thing, it's time to break down the event by the numbers! Today we'll be looking at a few things. First, we'll dive into the most played decks in the event and see how they stack up. Second, we'll talk about some of the lesser played decks, both to examine success and failures and to show off some really cool lists that flew under the radar. Finally, we'll conclude with a breakdown of the most played cards at the event! You can find all the decklists for Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad here.

Important Numbers

• Total number of decks (Day 1): 378
• Total number of decks (Day 2): 236
• Average day one to day two conversion rate: 62%
• Number of decks with 6+ wins in constructed: 110 (29% of day one decks)
• Number of decks with 7+ wins: 49 (13% of day one decks)
• Number of decks with 8+ wins and/or Top 8: 25 (7% of day one decks)

The Big Decks

Coming into Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad, Bant Company was the deck to beat. Unfortunately for Bant Company players, it seems that people figured out how to beat it. Now, it's worth noting that Bant Company seemed to be popular among unaffiliated (i.e. non-team) players, with many of the best players and biggest teams deciding to play decks designed to beat Bant Company, which might help explain the poor showing. That said, the numbers are bad across the board. It did a poor job putting players into day two, coming in six percentage points below expected. It also saw its metagame share decline at each stop, falling from 23% of the day one meta all the way down to 12% of the 8 wins or better meta. The only redeeming factor is that the deck did have the only 9 win player that didn't make the top eight, and also made its all the way to the finals. Overall, I'd look elsewhere heading forward. The deck that looked so dominant last weekend on the SCG Tour looked very beatable at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad. 

The story of Mono-White Humans at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad is quite interesting. It came into the event as one of the biggest decks in the format (trailing only Bant Company) and was the second most played deck on day one of the event. It proceeded to have a solid day one, putting 70% of its players into day two. Then, during day two, the wheels fell off. While the number of players getting six wins or more was fine, almost every player on the deck ended with exactly six wins in constructed. In fact, only three players on the deck managed to put up at least 7 wins in constructed, and only a single player ended up with eight or more wins. My guess would be that the day two meta was much less friendly, and the deck simply couldn't compete with GB Aristocrats, Goggles Ramp, and GW Tokens. Out of the two big decks, Bant Company was worse on day one, while Mono-White Humans was worse on day two, and while it might not be apparent without digging into the numbers, there's an argument that Mono-White Humans was worse overall. 

GR Ramp came in two distinct forms at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad, and while they both fall under the same heading, there were some very meaningful difference between the decks. Non-Goggles RG Ramp is essentially the older build of RG Eldrazi Ramp, looking to take over the game with creatures like Endless One and Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. Goggles Ramp, on the other hand, is almost a ramp burn deck, cutting back on the number of creatures and looking to finish the game by copying Fall of the Titans with Pyromancer's Goggle. So which build was better at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad? 

Non-Goggles Ramp had a very poor day one, putting only 59% of its players into day two. Meanwhile, Goggles Ramp had a great day one, having the third best conversion rate of all the decks that made up at least 3% of the field. As a result, my initial reaction was that Non-Goggles Ramp was one of the big losers of the tournament. However, on day two Non-Goggles Ramp had a bit of a comeback. 

Goggles Ramp, on the other hand, was even better, and is certainly one of the breakout decks at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad. It rose from under four percent of the day one meta all the way to twelve percent of the 7+ win meta, making it the biggest gainer in the entire event. So, the moral of the story is that while GR Ramp was a reasonable choice for Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad, Goggles Ramp was a great choice, and I expect the build to see a lot of playing moving forward. 

UW Humans has some of the oddest stats out of any deck at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad. Coming in at just over 5% of the meta, it had an average day one, putting 65% of its player into day two. Then, when the tournament was over, only three of its players ended up in the 6+ win group, which is about half of what was expected. However, all three of these players ended up with eight wins, making UW Humans one of the more played decks in the 8+ win meta. All around, I'm not sure what to make of these numbers. Is UW Humans a winner because it put so many players to 8 wins? Or is it a loser because it hardly gave anyone 6 wins? I'm going to call the overall performance of the deck average, although I will say that the UW build seemed slightly better than Mono-White Humans, especially on day two.

One of the biggest surprises of Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad is that Mardu Control, previously a fringe deck, started off day one as the fifth most played deck in the tournament. Unfortunately, the next couple of days explained why no one had been playing Mardu. The deck was the worse performing deck at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad by a wide margin. It came in 15 percentage points below average at putting players into day two and ended up making up a scant 2% of the 7+ win meta (and laying a goose egg for 8+ wins). The deck does not appear well positioned moving forward by any measure. 

Questions for the Second Tier

The above decks are all the archetypes that started day one of the event with at least 15 players making up at least 4% of the field. Once we go below this threshold, it's pretty foolish to try to break down the numbers, simply because the sample size is so low. Instead of going through all the numbers, let's answer three burning questions about the rest of the decks in the field. 

• Is GB Aristocrats Good?  Starting off at 3% of the field, GB Aristocrats had an amazing day one (aided by strong limited performances by Team Channel Fireball / Ultra Pro), putting a full 92% of players into day two (best in the field). So how did it do one day two? Well, seven of the 13 players ended up with at last six wins in constructed, which is a very solid number. That said, I'm starting to wonder how much of that number is the deck and how much of it is the players. Historically, whatever deck Channel Fireball and/or Ultra Pro plays ends up being one of the "winners." Are all of their decks that good, or is the success based on the fact these two teams contain many of the best players in the world? You decide. 
• Is Seasons Past (Green-Black Control) Good? The story here is pretty much the same as GB Aristocrats. The deck started with eight players (2.44% of the meta) and ended with four with at least six wins. That said, those players were Finkel, Huey, Reid, and Owen, and all of them except Finkel ended up with only six wins and out of the money. Considering that Finkel, Huey, Reid, and Owen could have squeeze out five wins in constructed playing their draft decks, I don't think us mere mortals would have as much success. While the numbers look fine, I think this one is more about the players than the deck. 
• Whose the winner?  Out of all the the second tier decks the best deck at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad is clearly GW Tokens. Not only did it take home the grand prize in the hands of Steve Rubin, but the numbers are amazing. Ten players played the deck at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad and nine made it into day two, and the fun doesn't end here. Eight of the ten ended up with at least six wins and six with at least seven wins. If you're looking to play the best deck in Standard next weekend, pick up your copies of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar now!

Digging Deep

Not every cool or exciting deck at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad managed to make the Top 8 or work its way into the feature match area. Here's the three most interesting decks from the tournament that managed to pick up at least six wins. 

A little bit like the Goggles Ramp deck, Christian Seibold's All in Red deck passes on creatures altogether and looks to use Vessel of Volatility to power out a fast Chandra, Flamecaller or Pyromancer's Goggles to take over the game!

Every single creature in the deck has an enters the battlefield ability to be abused by Eldrazi Displacer, including Archangel Avacyn for protection, Linvala, the Preserver for life gain, and Pia and Kiran Nalaar or Thopter Engineer to build a massive board of Thopter tokens.

Most people assumed that the rotation of fetchlands and Siege Rhino meant the end of the former format's bogeyman, Abzan Control. Not true for Scott Kirkwood, who managed to ride a million one-ofs, Seasons Past, and Sorin, Grim Nemesis to seven wins at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad. 

Most Played Cards

Overall

Shadows over Innistrad

Conclusion

Anyway, that's all for today. What do you make of these numbers? What other decks do you find exciting? Which cards saw way more play than you expected? Which cards saw less? As always, leave your thoughts, ideas, opinions, and suggestions in the comments. You can reach me on Twitter @SaffronOlive, or at SaffronOlive@MTGGoldfish.com.